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气象:2022,48(9):1195-1208
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2021年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析
向纯怡,许映龙,高拴柱,王皘,王海平
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon over the Western North Pacific in 2021
XIANG Chunyi,XU Yinglong,GAO Shuanzhu,WANG Qian,WANG Haiping
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2022-03-25    修订日期:2022-06-09
中文摘要: 利用中央气象台台风实时业务数据和其他观测资料对2021年西北太平洋台风活动的主要特征和影响我国的台风的路径、强度及风雨影响进行了分析和回顾。结果表明:2021年台风生成源地整体偏西,其中5个台风在我国南海近海生成;平均极值强度偏弱,有6个台风出现了快速增强,其中“灿都” 24 h内增幅达40 m·s-1;先后有6个台风登陆我国,另外2个影响我国沿海。预报误差分析表明,主要的强度预报误差来源于快速增强,而路径预报误差在短时效内主要由转向台风造成。在弱引导气流下,“烟花”在移速减慢后出现的偏北向移动与对流层高层高空冷涡的影响有关。由海陆热力差异和局地辐合抬升造成的近岸对流增幅可能是“查帕卡”近海快速加强的主要原因。在副热带高压明显调整的背景下,“灿都”在东海北部长达3天的回旋给华东地区带来了明显的风雨影响。
Abstract:Based on the operational real-time typhoon data of National Meteorological Centre and other sources of observations including automatic station and satellite images, the main characteristics of typhoon activities in Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2021, including influential tracks, strength, wind and rainfall, are analyzed and reviewed. It is found that in 2021, the genesis region was obviously westward, with five typhoons generated in the South China Sea. The overall strengths of the typhoons were weaker than normal, and six typhoons experienced rapid strengthening activities, among which Typhoon Chanthu increased to 40 m·s-1 within 24 hours, which was rare in the past 30 year. Six typhoons made landfall in China and the other two affected coastal areas. The forecast error analysis shows that the main strength forecast error was due to the rapid strengthening cases, while the track forecast error was mainly caused by the sharp turning of typhoons. Under the weak steering flow, the northward movement of Typhoon In-Fa after slowing down was related to the influence of upper-tropospheric cold low. The increase of offshore deep convection caused by land-sea thermal difference and local convergence could be the main reason for the offshore rapid strengthening of Typhoon Cempaka. Under the background of the obvious adjustment of the subtropical high, Typhoon Chanthu dwelled over the northern part of the East China Sea for three days bringing obvious rainfall and gale winds to the East China.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501604)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J027)共同资助
引用文本:
向纯怡,许映龙,高拴柱,王皘,王海平,2022.2021年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析[J].气象,48(9):1195-1208.
XIANG Chunyi,XU Yinglong,GAO Shuanzhu,WANG Qian,WANG Haiping,2022.Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon over the Western North Pacific in 2021[J].Meteor Mon,48(9):1195-1208.