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气象:2015,41(7):793-805
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中国龙卷的时空分布特征
(中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081)
Characteristics of Spatial Temporal Distribution of Tornadoes in China
(China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-01-21    修订日期:2015-04-25
中文摘要: 基于《中国气象灾害大典》、《中国气象灾害年鉴》和其他有关资料,根据“增强藤田级别”龙卷级别分类标准,对1961—2010年50年间中国EF2或以上级强龙卷(Significant Tornadoes)和2004—2013年10年间中国EF1或以上级龙卷的时空分布、发生频率和灾害特征进行了统计分析。主要结果如下:(1)1961—2010年50年间共记录到165次强龙卷,含EF2级145次、EF3级16次、EF4级4次,年均3.3次;(2)强龙卷主要分布在中国江淮地区、两湖平原、华南地区、东北地区和华北地区东南部等平原地区,具有在某地频发的特征;(3)165次强龙卷中,1986—1990年间的发生最为频繁,此后呈逐渐下降趋势;大多发生在春、夏两季,4—8月的数量占全年的87%;发生起始时间多集中在12—20时;(4)强龙卷发生过程中多伴随有冰雹和/或暴雨等天气现象,其路径长度与强度之间可能存在一定的正相关关系;(5)165次强龙卷至少造成1772人死亡,3.17万人受伤,总结了记录到的最强25次龙卷的灾情特征;(6)2004—2013年10年间共记录到143次EF1或以上级龙卷,含EF1级121次、EF2级19次、EF3级3次,其空间分布与1961—2010年强龙卷的分布相似;10年间, 2005年记录到的数量最多,此后呈逐年下降趋势;(7)利用2004—2013年《中国气象灾害年鉴》和其他相关资料记录的龙卷资料中EF1级龙卷和EF2或以上级强龙卷的发生数量之比,以及不完整的EF0级龙卷与EF1或以上级龙卷的发生数量之比,粗略估计得到1961—2010年50年间中国年均发生龙卷的次数不低于85次,EF1或以上级龙卷年均发生21次,不及美国龙卷发生频率的十分之一。
Abstract:Based on “the Handbook of China Meteorological Disasters” published in 2008 and other relevant documents for period 1961-2010, spatial temporal distribution characteristics of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater) are analyzed according to the “Enhanced Fujita Scale”. And based on “the Annual Report of China Meteorological Disasters” which began to be published from the year 2005, spatial temporal distribution characteristics of EF1 or greater tornadoes are investigated. The main results show there are total 165 significant tornadoes recorded in China during the 50 year period from 1961 to 2010, including 145 EF2, 16 EF3 and 4 EF4 tornadoes, with average 3.3 significant tornadoes each year. Most of the tornadoes occur in plain area, with higher frequency in Jianghuai Plain, South China, Northeast China Plain and the North China Plain. The highest frequency of tornadoes is during the period 1986-1990. Then, it starts to decline. Most of significant tornadoes occur in spring and summer (from April to August) which account for 87% of the total. The peak frequency of tornado genesis in the diurnal variation is from 12:00 to 20:00 local time. The 165 significant tornadoes killed at least 1772 people and wounded more than 31700.During the 10 year period from 2004-2013, according to “the Annual Report of China Meteorological Disasters” from 2005 to 2014, there are 121 EF1, 19 EF2 and 3 EF3 tornadoes recorded and their spatial distribution is similar to those of the significant tornadoes from 1961 to 2010. Furthermore, at least there are 570 EF0 tornadoes during the same period. With the data, we can infer roughly there is about at least 85 tornadoes and 21 EF1 or greater tornadoes seen in China on average each year, less than the tenth of the tornado occurring frequency in the United States.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41175043)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430103)和中国气象局强对流创新专家团队项目共同资助
引用文本:
范雯杰,俞小鼎,2015.中国龙卷的时空分布特征[J].气象,41(7):793-805.
FAN Wenjie,YU Xiaoding,2015.Characteristics of Spatial Temporal Distribution of Tornadoes in China[J].Meteor Mon,41(7):793-805.