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气象:2015,41(7):806-815
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不同资料大气扰动分量对2010年台风鲇鱼强度变化的描述
(北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京 100871)
Intensity Evolution of Typhoon Megi (2010) Revealed from Anomaly Based Atmospheric Variables
(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871)
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投稿时间:2014-08-28    修订日期:2015-05-14
中文摘要: 基于模式分析和再分析资料绘制的天气图是诊断和预报极端天气事件的常用方法。近年来的研究表明,这些资料中的气象变量分解为瞬变气候和扰动两个分量后,其中的扰动分量不但能够很好地指示地面上发生的暴雨落区、热浪与低温的位置,也能指示极端天气事件的异常强度。本文以近年来研究者们广为关注的2010年台风鲇鱼为例,首先分析四家气象机构对台风强度估计的不一致性,并比较不同分析与再分析资料中大气变量对台风强度的描述;然后描述欧洲再分析资料分解的高度扰动和温度扰动之间存在的静力平衡关系,得到大气扰动分量可以直接指示台风强度随时间的相对变化。本文研究指出,各家发布的路径资料以及再分析资料对台风的定强都有差异,但大气变量分解后的扰动分量对台风强度变化有一定指示意义,可为诊断和预报提供参考。
Abstract:Analysis and reanalysis datasets derived from numerical models are commonly applied in diagnosing and forecasting weather extremes by using traditional synoptic charts. Recent studies have showed that any atmospheric variable from these datasets can be naturally decomposed into climatic and anomaly based components while the latter can be used to locate regional heavy rains, heat waves and low temperature, and also to indicate the intensity of these extreme weather events. This paper focuses on the analysis of anomaly based variables using different datasets during the lifetime of super Typhoon Megi (2010) because it has been studied recently by several researchers. The inconsistency of typhoon intensity estimated from four meteorological centers in China, Japan and the United States is first analyzed. A hydrostatic balance relationship from both height and temperature anomalies is described from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re analysis interim reanalysis. The results show that the anomaly based variables can be used in indicating the evolution of typhoon anomalous intensity. This work can provide an useful reference for applying the output products of medium range weather forecast models to the prediction and diagnosis of typhoon intensity.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41375703)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306032)共同资助
引用文本:
钱维宏,张广文,黄静,2015.不同资料大气扰动分量对2010年台风鲇鱼强度变化的描述[J].气象,41(7):806-815.
QIAN Weihong,ZHANG Guangwen,HUANG Jing,2015.Intensity Evolution of Typhoon Megi (2010) Revealed from Anomaly Based Atmospheric Variables[J].Meteor Mon,41(7):806-815.