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气象:2013,39(6):719-727
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2005—2010年台风突变路径的预报误差及其环流背景
(1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京 210044;2.中国气象局台风与海洋气象预报中心,北京 100081)
Analysis on Forecasting Errors and Associated Circulations of Sudden Typhoon Track Changes During 2005-2010
(1.Analysis on Forecasting Errors and Associated Circulations of;2.Sudden Typhoon Track Changes During 2005-2010)
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投稿时间:2011-10-26    修订日期:2012-05-16
中文摘要: 本文主要分析了2005—2010年西北太平洋上台风突变路径的预报误差及其相联系的环流形势。通过分析北折和西折两种突变路径发现,中央气象台对西折突变路径的24和48 h预报接近平均预报水平;北折突变路径突变时刻,24 h预报的距离误差达到145.6 km,比平均预报误差增加了29.3%,48 h预报的距离误差达317.3 km,比平均预报误差增加了68.3%。从突变路径的物理机制方面分析突变路径预报的难点。将台风附近气流分解成低频和高频两部分,合成分析发现两类突变路径的风场区别不仅表现在低频尺度上副热带高压的西伸程度,还表现在天气尺度上台风附近的风场分布。
Abstract:The forecast errors and associated surrounding flows of sudden typhoon track changes in the western North Pacific during 2005-2010 are examined in this study. By analyzing the forecasts of National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration, it is found that the mean 24 h and 48 h forecast errors for the sudden north turning cases are significantly large while the forecasts of sudden west turning cases are close to the average forecasting levels. For the sudden northward change, compared to the average forecast errors, the mean 24 h and 48 h forecast errors are 145.6 km and 317.3 km respectively, increasing by 29.3% and 68.3%. Further composite analysis on the circulations shows that there are clear differences in the westward extension of the low frequency component of the subtropical high and the synoptic scale wind fields associated with the tropical cyclones with sudden track changes.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2009CB421503)资助
引用文本:
倪钟萍,吴立广,张玲,2013.2005—2010年台风突变路径的预报误差及其环流背景[J].气象,39(6):719-727.
NI Zhongping,WU Liguang,ZHANG Ling,2013.Analysis on Forecasting Errors and Associated Circulations of Sudden Typhoon Track Changes During 2005-2010[J].Meteor Mon,39(6):719-727.