用数值预报释用方法做近海及登陆热带气旋强度预报

钱燕珍; 张程明; 孙军波; 陈佩燕

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.06.007

气象:2013,39(6):710-718

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用数值预报释用方法做近海及登陆热带气旋强度预报

钱燕珍¹, 张程明¹, 孙军波², 陈佩燕³

(1.浙江宁波市气象台，宁波 315012;2.浙江慈溪市气象局，慈溪 315300 ;3.上海台风研究所，上海 200030)

offshore typhoon, landing typhoon, intensity prediction, support vector machine (SVM), interpretation of numerical weather Interpretation Method of Numerical Weather Prediction for Intensity Forecast of Offshore and Landing Tropical Cyclones

QIAN Yanzhen¹, ZHANG Chenming¹, SUN Junbo², CHEN Peiyan³

(1.Ningbo Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315012;2.Cixi Meteorological Office of Zhejiang Province, Cixi 315300;3.Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030)

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投稿时间：2012-06-19 修订日期：2012-09-22

中文摘要: 这是一个对GFS数值预报产品进行解释应用的方法。将支持向量机（SVM）回归方法应用于近海和登陆热带气旋（TC）的强度预报。从其本身强度，影响范围内气象因子情况，地形因子等三个方面，设计相关因子，建立预报模式，用来预报12、24、36、48、60和72 h的TC强度。总体上模式强度预报结果与中央气象台的预报结果相近，优于气候持续法的预报；趋势预报优势明显，可高出7～12个百分点。表明可以成为台风强度预报的另一个工具，投入业务应用。

中文关键词: 近海台风，登陆台风，强度预报，支持向量机方法，数值预报释用

Abstract:This is an interpretation technique for numerical weather prediction (NWP) products of GFS. In this paper the support vector machine (SVM) was employed to forecast the intensity of offshore and landing tropical cyclones (TC). According to the TC intensity, meteorological environment and topographical factors, we designed related factors and built a forecasting model which was used to forecast the intensities of TC in 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hours. The predicting precision by SVM is closer to the forecast by the National Meteorological Centre of CMA and all predictions are superior to that by the method of climate persistence. The trend prediction of TC has obvious advantages and can improve forecast precision by 7%-12%. All these indicate that SVM is a better method and can be applied to TC intensity forecast in operations.

keywords: offshore typhoon, landing typhoon, intensity prediction, support vector machine (SVM), interpretation of numerical weather prediction

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基金项目:上海台风基金项目（2009ST08）和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目（2009CB421504）共同资助

作者	单位
钱燕珍	浙江宁波市气象台，宁波 315012
张程明	浙江宁波市气象台，宁波 315012
孙军波	浙江慈溪市气象局，慈溪 315300 
陈佩燕	上海台风研究所，上海 200030

Author Name	Affiliation
QIAN Yanzhen	Ningbo Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315012
ZHANG Chenming	Ningbo Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315012
SUN Junbo	Cixi Meteorological Office of Zhejiang Province, Cixi 315300
CHEN Peiyan	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030

引用文本：
钱燕珍,张程明,孙军波,陈佩燕,2013.用数值预报释用方法做近海及登陆热带气旋强度预报[J].气象,39(6):710-718.
QIAN Yanzhen,ZHANG Chenming,SUN Junbo,CHEN Peiyan,2013.offshore typhoon, landing typhoon, intensity prediction, support vector machine (SVM), interpretation of numerical weather Interpretation Method of Numerical Weather Prediction for Intensity Forecast of Offshore and Landing Tropical Cyclones[J].Meteor Mon,39(6):710-718.