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投稿时间：2010-03-24 修订日期：2010-06-12
投稿时间：2010-03-24 修订日期：2010-06-12
中文摘要: 基于大气系统的非线性和复杂性，加上初值和模式等本身无法避免的一些不确定性，天气预报从单一值的确定论向多值的概率论转变不但符合气象科学的实际也是更好地服务社会之必需。但是这种转变的理性思考对很多用户,甚至气象工作者自己都不是很清楚。为了帮助人们理解和加速这一转变，本文就这种转变所面临的一些普遍困惑谈一些想法。集合预报是促成这种转变的中心技术，为什么要做集合预报？集合预报的根本目的是什么？人们对集合预报有哪些误解？集合预报对整个数值预报系统将带来什么样的变革？以及预报员的新使命是什么?作者针对这些问题进行了讨论。
Abstract:Given the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric system combined with the uncertainties associated with initial conditions and models, it is not only a requirement from science but also a necessity to better serve user community to transit weather prediction from deterministic to probabilistic format. However, the rational behind the transition is not clear but full of debate and confusion to many including public, end users and even meteorologists themselves. To clarify some of these and to expedite the transition, a few issues were discussed. Since the ensemble forecasting is a central technique to facilitate such a transition, it is first discussed in this paper by focusing on the following five aspects: (1) why is ensemble forecasting needed? (2) what is the primary mission of ensemble forecasting? (3) what are common misunderstandings about it? (4) what is the impact it will bring to numerical weather prediction system as a whole? and (5) what is the forecaster’s new role in the “ensemble forecasting” era?
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基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200706001）， （GYHY2009416009）,科技部科技支撑计划项目2009BAC51B03共同资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| DU Jun | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, U.S.A. |
| CHEN Jing | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础: 谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.
DU Jun,CHEN Jing,2010.The Corner Stone in Facilitating the Transition from Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts-Ensemble Forecasting and Its Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,36(11):1-11.
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础: 谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.
DU Jun,CHEN Jing,2010.The Corner Stone in Facilitating the Transition from Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts-Ensemble Forecasting and Its Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,36(11):1-11.