Abstract:The accuracy of typhoon location and intensity estimation, as well as the accuracy of typhoon track and intensity forecasts, is verified for the 26 named typhoons over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2024. The forecast methods that are verified include subjective forecast methods, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, statistical forecasting methods, dynamical-statistical forecasting methods, multi-model ensemble forecasting methods, and AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) models. The results show that the overall mean error of typhoon location estimation by the five official typhoon forecasting agencies was 22.3 km, and the overall mean absolute error of typhoon intensity estimation was 2.5 m·s-1. The performance of 48 h and 72 h typhoon track forecasts by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of China Meteorological Administration reached the highest level in records. Among global NWP models, ECMWF-IFS exhibited the best performance in typhoon track forecasts. The AIWP model “Fengqing” achieved track forecast performance comparable to ECMWF-IFS within 96 h lead time, and slightly outperformed ECMWF-IFS with 60 h to 96 h in advance. The intensity forecast performance of NWP models and dynamical-statistical forecasting methods was superior to that of ensemble prediction systems and AIWP models. Specifically, AIWP models systematically underestimated the typhoon intensity.