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投稿时间:2025-05-25 修订日期:2026-04-13
投稿时间:2025-05-25 修订日期:2026-04-13
中文摘要: 基于1991—2024年全国一季稻和双季稻主产区水稻发育期和气象要素观测资料,结合水稻主要农业气象灾害指标构建灾害强度指数和危险性指数,解析全国水稻主产区高温热害、低温冷害、干旱及高温干旱复合灾害时空变化特点。结果表明:1991—2024年,一季稻高温热害强度以每10年0.65的速率增加,尤其是2010年后显著增加,2022年强度最强;2017年起,早稻高温热害增强趋势明显;东北地区水稻障碍型冷害强度呈减弱趋势,2023—2024年少有发生;晚稻寒露风强度2017—2022年较高,2023—2024年有所减弱。水稻干旱强度年际波动大,一季稻和晚稻2022年最强,二者受旱站点占比较早稻高。一季稻高温干旱复合灾害强度明显强于早稻。灾害高危险性分布显示:一季稻高温热害集中在四川东北部、重庆中部、湖北东部和湖南西部,早稻高温热害在浙江中部、江西中部、湖南东部和福建中部;东北地区水稻障碍型冷害在黑龙江东北部和吉林东部,晚稻寒露风在安徽南部、江苏南部和浙江;一季稻干旱在东北地区西部和长江流域北部,早稻干旱在广东南部和海南,晚稻干旱在湖北东部、江西中北部和湖南中东部;一季稻高温干旱复合灾害在四川东北部、重庆中北部、湖北东北部和湖南西部,早稻高温干旱复合灾害在浙江北部和湖南东南部。重点区域灾害研究结果对指导此类区域开展分灾种防灾减灾具有参考价值。
中文关键词: 水稻,高温热害,低温冷害,干旱,复合灾害,强度指数
Abstract:Based on rice phenological stages and meteorological observation data from nationwide single-season rice and double-season rice in major rice production areas in China from 1991 to 2024, combined with major agrometeorological disaster indicators, this paper constructs the disaster intensity and hazard indices and analyzes the changing characteristics of heat stress, cold stress, drought, and compound heat and drought stresses. The results indicate that in the period of 1991-2024, heat stress in single-season rice intensified with the tendency of 0.65 increment per 10 years, and the significant increment was observed after 2010 with the highest intensity seen in 2022. For early rice, heat stress has been gradually increasing since 2017. Obstruction-type chilling injury to rice in Northeast China exhibited a weakening trend, seldom occurring during 2023-2024. The intensity of cold dew wind for late rice was higher during 2017-2022, but has become weakening during 2023-2024. Drought intensity has fluctuated interannually, with the highest intensity for single-season rice and late rice occurring in 2022, and the affected stations of the two account for higher proportions than that for early rice. The compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are more severe than on early rice. Regarding the spatial distribution of high disaster risks, heat stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, central Chongqing, eastern Hubei and western Hunan, while heat stresses on early rice are located in central Zhejiang, central Jiangxi, eastern Hunan and central Fujian. The high risks of obstruction-type chilling injury to single-season rice have been identified in northeastern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin, and the cold dew wind risk to late rice is demonstrated in south Anhui, south Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The high risks of drought are highlighted in western part of Northeast China and northern part of low reaches of the Yangtze River Basin for single-season rice, southern Guangdong and Hainan for early rice, and eastern Hubei, north-central Jiangxi and east-central Hunan for late rice. High risks of compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan, north-central Chongqing, northeastern Hubei and western Hunan, while for early rice, the stress is located in northern Zhejiang and southeastern Hunan. In these rice production areas exposed to high disaster risks, above findings can help guide prevention and reduction of specific disasters.
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基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J051、CXFZ2026J059、CXFZ2026J057)共同资助
引用文本:
张蕾,郭安红,赵运成,赵晓凤,2026.1991—2024年气候变化背景下全国水稻主要农业气象灾害变化特点[J].气象,52(8):1008-1021.
ZHANG Lei,GUO Anhong,ZHAO Yuncheng,ZHAO Xiaofeng,2026.Characteristics of Major Agrometeorological Disasters for Rice Under Climate Change Background in China During 1991-2024[J].Meteor Mon,52(8):1008-1021.
张蕾,郭安红,赵运成,赵晓凤,2026.1991—2024年气候变化背景下全国水稻主要农业气象灾害变化特点[J].气象,52(8):1008-1021.
ZHANG Lei,GUO Anhong,ZHAO Yuncheng,ZHAO Xiaofeng,2026.Characteristics of Major Agrometeorological Disasters for Rice Under Climate Change Background in China During 1991-2024[J].Meteor Mon,52(8):1008-1021.
