本文已被:浏览 0次 下载 1次
投稿时间:2025-12-22 修订日期:2026-04-01
投稿时间:2025-12-22 修订日期:2026-04-01
中文摘要: 基于多种观测资料及 ERA5再分析资料,系统分析了2025年7月下旬华北的一次极端暴雨过程,揭示了相似大尺度暖区背景下,过程期间三个极端降水日(7月24日、25日、27日)的中尺度对流系统在初生、组织和传播机制上的多样性及其天气学成因。结果表明:本次过程降水强度强、累计降水量大,极端性显著,南侧暖区雨带的多个极端强降水中心是预报的主要难点。24日对流起源于山麓,其极端强降水与带状对流叠加后向传播伴随的“列车效应”有关,形成了横跨山区、山麓与平原地区最为广泛的强降水落区; 25日对流源于山区,其极端强降水与呈准静止状态的对流系统有关,强降水区范围最为局地; 27日对流多始于平原,移至山麓后显著增强,极端降水与线状对流经过同一区域并伴随后向传播的“列车效应”有关,强降水区主要位于山区。24日天气尺度强迫最为显著,强盛深厚的低空急流(LLJ)与地形抬升及其持续的暖湿输送,在对流沿着山前触发及后向传播过程中发挥了关键作用,冷池出流形成的辐合锋区在系统的组织化与向平原的扩展起到了十分重要作用; 25日副热带高压控制下LLJ范围和厚度均减小,限制了对流向下游地区的扩展,地形抬升成为主导触发和增强机制,期间伴有类中气旋旋转结构,导致了最强的局地小时雨强; 27日天气尺度强迫最弱,边界层偏东气流以及低层弱辐合线触发了对流,山区冷池与平原暖脊形成的中尺度锋区为后向传播提供了有利条件,西南气流在地形前辐合抬升为对流自平原移入山麓显著增强提供有力的动力条件。
中文关键词: 极端暴雨,中尺度对流,低空急流,地形,冷池,中尺度锋区
Abstract:With multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, this paper systematically analyzes an extreme torrential rain event that occurred in North China in late July 2025, and reveals the diversity in the initiation, organization and propagation mechanisms of mesoscale convective systems during three days with extreme rainfall (24, 25 and 27 July) under a similar large-scale warm-sector background. Besides, the synoptic causes for the extreme torrential rain are investigated. The results show that this extreme rainfall event was characterized by significant extremity with heavy rainfall intensity and large accumulated precipitation amount. The multiple extreme precipitation centers within the southern warm-sector rainband posed big challenges to the forecasting operation. On 24 July, the convection initiated at the foothills, and the extreme rainfall was dominated by a “train effect” from backward-propagating and band-shaped convection, which resulted in the most widespread rainfall area spanning mountains, foothills and plains. On 25 July, the convection originated in mountains, and the extreme rainfall was associated with a quasi-stationary system, leading to the localized precipitation. On July 27, the convection mostly initiated in plains and intensified after moving to the foothills. The extreme rainfall was related to the “train effect” from line-shaped convections, and the heavy precipitation occurred mainly in mountainous areas. On 24 July, the synoptic scale forcing was most significant. The strong and deep low-level jet (LLJ), coupled with orographic lifting and sustained moisture transport, played a key role in the initiation and back-propagation of the convection. The convergent frontal zone formed by the outflow of the cold pool had a very important role in organizing the rainfall system and its expansion into plains. On 25 July, under the control of the subtropical high, a weaker and shallower LLJ restricted the downstream propagation of the convective system, making orographic lifting the dominant mechanism for the triggering and enhancement of heavy precipitation. This was accompanied by a mesocyclone-like structure that produced the heaviest local hourly rainfall. On 27 July, under the weakest synoptic scale forcing, the convection was triggered by boundary layer easterly airflow and low-level weak convergence line. The mesoscale front area formed by the cold pool in mountainous areas and the warm ridge in plains provided favorable conditions for backward propagation. Moreover, the convergence and lifting of the southwest airflow in front of the terrain built powerful dynamic conditions for the significant intensification of the convection moving from plains into foothills.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室开放课题(2025KFA01)、国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2442204)、国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3012404、2024YFC3013005)、中国气象局能力提升专项(23NLTSZ007)和重大科技专项(2024-SF-A1)共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 陈双 | 灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,北京 100081; 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
| 符娇兰 | 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
| 陈涛 | 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
| 谌芸 | 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
| 刘倍峣 | 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
陈双,符娇兰,陈涛,谌芸,刘倍峣,2026.华北“25·7”暖区极端暴雨对流演变特征差异及环境条件分析[J].气象,52(6):657-672.
CHEN Shuang,FU Jiaolan,CHEN Tao,CHEN Yun,LIU Beiyao,2026.Differences in Convective Evolution Characteristics and Environmental Conditions of the July 2025 Extreme Warm-Sector Torrential Rain in North China[J].Meteor Mon,52(6):657-672.
陈双,符娇兰,陈涛,谌芸,刘倍峣,2026.华北“25·7”暖区极端暴雨对流演变特征差异及环境条件分析[J].气象,52(6):657-672.
CHEN Shuang,FU Jiaolan,CHEN Tao,CHEN Yun,LIU Beiyao,2026.Differences in Convective Evolution Characteristics and Environmental Conditions of the July 2025 Extreme Warm-Sector Torrential Rain in North China[J].Meteor Mon,52(6):657-672.
