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投稿时间:2026-02-01 修订日期:2026-05-22
投稿时间:2026-02-01 修订日期:2026-05-22
中文摘要: 2025年7月23—29日(简称“25·7”)北京出现极端暴雨。本文基于多源观测、ERA5再分析、北京睿思和睿图临近数值预报系统高分辨率格点分析等资料,对北京“25·7”极端暴雨的实况和时空特征、形成机制等进行分析。结果表明:此次过程发生在西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)较常年显著偏西、偏北、偏强的环流背景下,副高南侧热带系统活跃;大气低层暖异常,925 hPa有水汽通量正距平,北京北部和东部为显著增强的水汽辐合区,具备高温、高湿和高CAPE的环境条件。过程降水具有持续时间长、累计降水量大、夜发性、局地性和极端性等特点。根据降水逐日演变情况,可将此次过程分为四个阶段,四个阶段也恰对应副高588 dagpm线位置的摆动。极端暴雨出现在第二和第三阶段,集中在北部山区,具有“面弱点强”的特征,伴有极端短时强降水。重点对这两个阶段进行分析,发现第二阶段降水回波具有后向对流触发和“列车效应”特征,持续4~5 h,暴雨出现在海拔200~600 m;而第三阶段表现为带状回波内不断有对流生消,持续十几小时,暴雨主要位于海拔300 m以下。进一步的成因分析表明,第二和第三阶段都具备有利于产生极端暴雨的动力和地形条件,中尺度低空急流出口区、边界层南风和东南风辐合以及山区喇叭口地形、迎风坡等条件相配合,造成局地深厚的辐合和上升运动;差异在于第二阶段是暖区暴雨,边界层南风急流的出口区位于北部浅山区,沿山一线低层辐合有利于对流不断触发,“列车效应”造成极端暴雨;而第三阶段有弱冷空气影响,极端暴雨与切变线和中尺度低涡南侧的动力辐合有关。据此,建立了“25·7”极端暴雨概念模型。
中文关键词: 极端暴雨,副热带高压,中尺度急流, 列车效应,地形
Abstract:From 23 to 29 July 2025, extreme torrential rain occurred in Beijing. Based on multi-source observation data, ERA5 reanalysis data, RISE and RMAPS-NOW high-resolution grid analysis data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rainfall stages, the spatio-temporal features and causes of this event. The results show that the July 2025 extreme torrential rain occurred under a stable circulation background where the subtropical high was significantly westward and northward and stronger than usual, with active tropical systems on its southern side. The lower atmosphere had warm anomalies, with a positive water vapor flux anomaly at 925 hPa and a significantly enhanced water vapor convergence zone in northern and eastern Beijing, creating conditions of high temperature, high humidity and high CAPE. This rainfall event was featured with long duration, much more accumulated precipitation, nocturnal occurrence, localization and extremity. According to the daily evolution of precipitation, the whole event is divided into four stages, corresponding to the swing of the 588 dagpm contour position of the subtropical high. Extreme torrential rain occurred in Stage 2 and Stage 3, concentrated in the northern mountainous areas of Beijing, featuring a “weak overall but strong locally” pattern, and also accompanied by extreme short-time heavy rainfall. The focus analysis on this two stages indicates that, the radar echoes in Stage 2 showed obvious backward triggering and “train effect” characteristics, lasting 4-5 h with torrential rain occurring at altitudes of 200-600 m. However, in Stage 3 there were continuous generation and dissipation of convection within banded echoes, lasting more than ten hours, with the occurrence of torrential rain mainly below the 300 m altitude. Further analysis on the causes shows that both Stage 2 and Stage 3 had favorable dynamic and topographic conditions, including the exit area of the mesoscale low-level jet, the convergence of southerly and southeasterly winds in the boundary layer, as well as the horn-shaped terrain and windward slopes of the mountains. The difference between two stages is that it was warm-sector torrential rain in the Stage 2, during which the exit area of southern boundary-layer jet was in the northern shallow mountains, the low-level convergence along the mountains was conducive to continuous triggering of convection, and the “train effect” caused the occurrence of extreme torrential rain. While the Stage 3 was influenced by a weak cold air and was related to dynamic convergence on the southern side of a shear line and a mesoscale low vortex. Accordingly, the conceptual model of the July 2025 extreme torrential rain is established.
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基金项目:灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室开放课题(2025KFA02)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(42375020)、中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026-002)、中国气象局“首都气象精准预报”青年创新团队(CMA2023QN10)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J018)共同资助
引用文本:
雷蕾,邢楠,李桑,李京南,张琳娜,吴宏议,刘瑞婷,宋林烨,2026.北京“25·7”极端暴雨时空特征及形成机制分析[J].气象,52(6):641-656.
LEI Lei,XING Nan,LI Sang,LI Jingnan,ZHANG Linna,WU Hongyi,LIU Ruiting,SONG Linye,2026.Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms of the July 2025 Extreme Torrential Rain in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,52(6):641-656.
雷蕾,邢楠,李桑,李京南,张琳娜,吴宏议,刘瑞婷,宋林烨,2026.北京“25·7”极端暴雨时空特征及形成机制分析[J].气象,52(6):641-656.
LEI Lei,XING Nan,LI Sang,LI Jingnan,ZHANG Linna,WU Hongyi,LIU Ruiting,SONG Linye,2026.Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms of the July 2025 Extreme Torrential Rain in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,52(6):641-656.
