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气象:2026,52(5):621-630
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基于环流分型的拉萨机场降雪天气对比分析
袁敏,王迪,朱国辉,田续蔚
(中国民用航空飞行学院航空气象学院,成都 641419; 中国气象局航空气象重点开放实验室,成都 641419; 中国民用航空西藏自治区空中交通管理中心,拉萨 850050; 北京市气象服务中心,北京 100089)
Comparative Analysis of Snowfall Events at Lhasa Airport Based on Circulation Type Classification
YUAN Min,WANG Di,ZHU Guohui,TIAN Xuyu
(College of Aviation Meteorology, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Chengdu 641419; Key Laboratory for Aviation Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 641419; Civil Aviation Air Traffic Management Bureau of Tibet, Lhasa 850050; Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2025-06-08    修订日期:2026-01-17
中文摘要: 为提升拉萨机场降雪预报准确性与航空气象服务水平,文章采用改进的Jenkinson-Collison(J-C)环流分型方法,对2013—2020年拉萨机场56次降雪过程进行分型与物理量场诊断。结果表明,改进后的方法分型成功率为92.9%,识别出气旋型(12.5%)、低压槽型(42.9%)和西风平流型(37.5%),不确定型仅7.1%(显著低于传统方法)。三类分型特征差异显著:气旋型对应高原涡,动力与水汽条件最强,平均降雪量3.4 mm、持续358 min(均最大);低压槽型受南支槽影响,层结最不稳定,动力与水汽较弱,平均降雪量1.2 mm、持续170 min(均最小);西风平流型以暖脊和高空急流为主,层结最稳,水汽呈“低层辐合、高层辐散”结构,平均降雪量1.8 mm、持续280 min,降雪指标介于前二者之间。研究结果为拉萨机场降雪的精细化预报与航空气象服务提供科学参考。
Abstract:To improve snowfall forecast accuracy and aviation meteorological services at Lhasa Airport, by employing the improved Jenkinson-Collison (J-C) circulation type classification method, this paper classifies and diagnoses 56 snowfall events that occurred during 2013—2020 at Lhasa Airport. The results are that, with the improved method, a classification success rate of 92.9% is achieved, and three types, i.e., the cyclonic type (12.5%), low-pressure trough type (42.9%) and westerly advection type (37.5%) of snowfall events are identified. There are only 7.1% of snowfall events remaining unclassified-significantly lower than that by the traditional method. The characteristics of the three identified circulation types are significantly different. The cyclonic type, corresponding to plateau vortices, features the strongest dynamics and water vapor conditions, with the most average snowfall (3.4 mm) and longest duration (358 min). The low-pressure trough type, influenced by the southern branch trough, shows the most unstable atmospheric stratification but relatively weak dynamics and water vapor, resulting in the lowest mean snowfall (1.2 mm) and shortest duration (170 min). The westerly advection type, dominated by warm ridges and upper-level jets, has the most stable atmospheric stratification, with a “low-level convergence and upper-level divergence” moisture structure. Its intermediate snowfall indicators lie between those of the other two types, that is, the average snowfall is 1.8 mm and the duration is 280 min. These findings could provide a scientific basis for refined snowfall forecasting and help improve the aviation meteorological services at Lhasa Airport.
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基金项目:科技部科技基础资源调查专项(2025FY101500)、国家重点研发计划(2021YFB2601701-01)、西南区域人工影响天气能力建设(四川)研究试验项目[SCIT-ZG(Z)-2024100001]和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(24CAFUC01003)共同资助
引用文本:
袁敏,王迪,朱国辉,田续蔚,2026.基于环流分型的拉萨机场降雪天气对比分析[J].气象,52(5):621-630.
YUAN Min,WANG Di,ZHU Guohui,TIAN Xuyu,2026.Comparative Analysis of Snowfall Events at Lhasa Airport Based on Circulation Type Classification[J].Meteor Mon,52(5):621-630.