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投稿时间:2026-01-13 修订日期:2026-02-10
投稿时间:2026-01-13 修订日期:2026-02-10
中文摘要: 基于中国2374个台站的观测数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集等资料,对2025年秋季中国气候异常时空特征和成因进行了分析。2025年秋季全国气温总体偏高,北方地区气温呈现“暖—冷—暖”的季内变化,南方地区“前暖后冷”。全国平均降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多,降水时空分布不均,秋季前期华北南部、华东北部、华中北部、西北地区东部等地降水量大范围偏多、极端性突出,形成严重的秋涝;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨期长、降水量历史最多。北方秋涝的形成与东亚大气环流异常密切相关,西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)异常偏强且脊线位置极端偏北、黄海上空低层反气旋异常偏强构成了有利的水汽输送条件,是北方秋涝形成的基本环流背景;副高在经向上极端稳定少动,是北方秋涝形成的另一关键环流特征。此外,秋季赤道中东太平洋处于由中性偏冷向拉尼娜状态发展的阶段,并伴随印度洋偶极子极端负位相,两者通过大气遥相关、局地经纬向环流耦合等途径,协同作用于东亚环流异常配置,是2025年我国北方秋涝的重要海洋外强迫信号。
Abstract:Based on observations from 2374 meteorological stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the spatio-temporal characteristics and causes of climate anomalies over China during autumn 2025 are analyzed. It was generally warmer than normal across China in autumn 2025, with the northern region of China exhibiting an intraseasonal “warm-cold-warm” temperature variation and the southern region showing a “warm in the early stage and cold in the late stage” pattern. The national average precipitation was the most since 1961 for the same period, with an uneven spatio and temporal distribution. In the early autumn, large-scale excessive precipitation with prominent extremeness occurred in southern North China, northern East China, northern Central China, and eastern Northwest China, finally leading to serious autumn flood. The autumn rain in West China started early, ended late and had a long duration, with the precipitation amount ranking the top in history. The formation of autumn flood in northern China was closely correlated to East Asian atmospheric circulation anomalies. The abnormally strong western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with an extremely northward ridge line, coupled with a robust low-level anticyclone over the Yellow Sea, provided favorable water vapor transport conditions, serving as the basic circulation background for the autumn flood in northern China. Additionally, the extreme meridional stability of the WPSH (i.e., little north-south movement) was another key circulation feature contributing to the flood. Furthermore, during the autumn, the equatorial central-eastern Pacific was in a developmental stage from cold water conditions to La Nia, accompanied by an extreme negative phase of the tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD). The two factors, through pathways such as atmospheric teleconnections and local meridional-zonal circulation coupling, worked synergistically in influencing the anomalous configuration of the East Asian circulation, forming as an important oceanic external forcing background for the autumn flood in northern China in 2025.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42505041、42475019、41975088)、国家自然科学联合基金项目(U2242206、U2442206)和国家重点研发计划(2024YFF0809204)共同资助
引用文本:
吕卓卓,支蓉,2026.2025年秋季中国气候特征及北方秋涝成因分析[J].气象,52(4):492-502.
LYU Zhuozhuo,ZHI Rong,2026.Analysis of Climate Features over China and the Possible Causes of Flood in Northern China in Autumn 2025[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):492-502.
吕卓卓,支蓉,2026.2025年秋季中国气候特征及北方秋涝成因分析[J].气象,52(4):492-502.
LYU Zhuozhuo,ZHI Rong,2026.Analysis of Climate Features over China and the Possible Causes of Flood in Northern China in Autumn 2025[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):492-502.
