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投稿时间:2025-01-11 修订日期:2026-02-28
投稿时间:2025-01-11 修订日期:2026-02-28
中文摘要: 地面风速预报值通常由模式最低层风速诊断至10 m高度,因此模式地形的精度对地面风速预报性能具有重要影响。本研究采用90 m分辨率的SRTM(Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)数据构建高精度地形,并结合近地层相似理论,对数值模式中原有地面风速诊断预报方案进行优化。利用全国1万余个参与中国气象局考核的自动气象观测站逐小时观测资料进行检验,结果表明,就2023年7月20日与11月20日00时(世界时)起报的24 h地面风速预报而言,优化后的方案使得地面风速预报偏差分别降低了10.7%和9.1%,均方根误差均下降近1%。基于两个月的批量试验进一步表明,2023年 7月和11月整月24 h预报偏差分别降低了50.0%和52.6%,优化后的诊断预报方案对模式地面风速预报性能具有稳定的改进效果。
中文关键词: 数值预报,高精度地形,近地层相似理论,地面风速
Abstract:The surface wind speed forecasts are typically diagnosed from the lowest model level to 10 m height, thus the accuracy of model terrain has a significant impact on the performance of surface wind speed forecasts. In this study, high-resolution terrain data with 90 m resolution from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) are used to construct a more accurate representation of terrain. Combined with near-surface similarity theory, the original surface wind speed diagnostic scheme in the numerical model is optimized. Using hourly observations from more than 10 000 automatic weather stations that are included in the assessment of the China Meteorological Administration, the 24 h surface wind speed forecasts initialized at 00:00 UTC 20 July and 20 November 2023 are verified. The results show that, compared with the original scheme, the optimized scheme reduces the deviation of regional surface wind speed forecasts by 10.7% on 20 July and 9.1% on 20 November, with a decrease about 1% in root mean square error as well. Furthermore, the two-month continuous tests indicate that the optimized scheme reduces the regional deviation of the 24 h surface wind speed forecasts by 50.0% and 52.6% for the whole months of July and November 2023, respectively. This denotes a significant positive effect of the optimized scheme on the performance of the surface wind speed forecasts by the numerical model.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42405155)和中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSQ009)共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 张鑫宇 | 北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089 |
| 范水勇 | 北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089 |
| 窦有俊 | 北京象元气象观测技术研究院,北京 100081 |
| 陈敏 | 北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089 |
| 刘瑞金 | 北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089 |
| 程志刚 | 北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089 |
引用文本:
张鑫宇,范水勇,窦有俊,陈敏,刘瑞金,程志刚,2026.模式地面风速诊断预报方案的优化与应用[J].气象,52(4):465-477.
ZHANG Xinyu,FAN Shuiyong,DOU Youjun,CHEN Min,LIU Ruijin,CHENG Zhigang,2026.Optimization and Application of Model Surface Wind Speed Diagnosis and Prediction Scheme[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):465-477.
张鑫宇,范水勇,窦有俊,陈敏,刘瑞金,程志刚,2026.模式地面风速诊断预报方案的优化与应用[J].气象,52(4):465-477.
ZHANG Xinyu,FAN Shuiyong,DOU Youjun,CHEN Min,LIU Ruijin,CHENG Zhigang,2026.Optimization and Application of Model Surface Wind Speed Diagnosis and Prediction Scheme[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):465-477.
