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投稿时间:2024-12-18 修订日期:2025-07-21
投稿时间:2024-12-18 修订日期:2025-07-21
中文摘要: 为提升对北京大兴国际机场(PKX)区域短时强降水(FHR)的预报能力,文章基于2014—2023年5—9月分钟和小时级雨量资料、ERA5再分析资料,对FHR环流分型并分析了降水时空分布特征及环境条件。结果表明:FHR过程的环流形势分为5类,依占比降序为蒙古低涡低槽型、西太平洋副热带高压(副高)边缘型、西来槽和副高相互作用型、黄淮低涡倒槽型及东北冷涡后部型。FHR年平均发生频次在紧邻PKX区域东部相对较多,近10年频次波动上升;高发于7月、8月,其中7月占比过半;日变化呈单峰分布,峰值在22—23时(北京时)。FHR持续时间普遍为40~80 min。副高边缘型、西来槽和副高相互作用型的FHR具有夜发特征;东北冷涡后部型的FHR多发于午后。剧烈短时强降水(≥50 mm·h-1)主要发生在副高边缘型和蒙古低涡低槽型环流背景下。不同环流形势下FHR发生环境差异显著:副高边缘型、西来槽和副高相互作用型水汽充足,整层可降水量普遍在50 mm以上,且对流有效位能较大;黄淮低涡倒槽型水汽辐合强度大,但热力不稳定性较弱,常出现边界层东风急流,在动力强迫维持下,降水持续时间往往较长;东北冷涡后部型整层水汽较差,但低层往往有暖平流强迫,高低空温差大,利于局地强降水发展。
Abstract:To enhance the forecasting capability for flash heavy rainfall (FHR) in the Beijing Daxing International Airport (PKX) region, by using minutely and hourly data from May to September during 2014-2023, combined with ERA5 reanalysis data, this paper classifies circulation patterns and analyzes the precipitation as well as their spatio temporal distribution characteristics and ambient conditions. The results show that FHR processes are classified into five circulation patterns, listing in descending order according to their percentages as follows: the Mongolian vortex and trough type, the western Pacific subtropical high edge type, the interaction type of westerly trough and western Pacific subtropical high, the Huang Huai vortex inverted trough type, and the Northeast China cold vortex rear type. The annual average frequency of FHR is relatively higher in the eastern part of the PKX region, showing an upward fluctuating trend over the past decade. FHR events are most frequent in July and August, with that in July accounting for more than half of the occurrences. The diurnal variation exhibits a unimodal distribution, peaking in the period from 22:00 BT to 23:00 BT, with durations generally ranging from 40 to 80 min. The western Pacific subtropical high edge type, the interaction type of westerly trough and western Pacific subtropical high, and the Northeast China cold vortex rear type have distinct temporal characteristics, with the former two being predominantly nocturnal and the latter occurring more frequently in the afternoon. Intense FHR (≥50 mm·h-1) primarily occurs under western Pacific subtropical high edge type, and Mongolian vortex and trough type. Significant differences are observed in the ambient conditions under different circulation patterns. The western Pacific subtropical high edge type, interaction type of westerly trough and western Pacific subtropical high, and the Huang Huai vortex inverted trough type are characterized by abundant moisture, with the vertically integrated precipitable water exceeding 50 mm and high convective available potential energy, whereas the Huang Huai vortex inverted trough type exhibits strong moisture convergence despite weaker thermal instability, often featuring boundary layer easterly jets that sustain precipitation. The Northeast China cold vortex rear type, despite limited integrated moisture, is benefitial for localized heavy rainfall through strong low level warm advection and significant upper lower atmospheric temperature differences, favoring the development of localized heavy rainfall.
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基金项目:中国气象局“首都气象精准预报”青年创新团队(CMA2023QN10)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(42375020)、北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ202302005)和国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004103)共同资助
引用文本:
李京南,雷蕾,薛禄宇,2026.北京大兴国际机场区域短时强降水特征及预报因子研究[J].气象,52(2):160-173.
LI Jingnan,LEI Lei,XUE Luyu,2026.Characteristics and Forecasting Factors of Flash Heavy Rainfall in Beijing Daxing International Airport Region[J].Meteor Mon,52(2):160-173.
李京南,雷蕾,薛禄宇,2026.北京大兴国际机场区域短时强降水特征及预报因子研究[J].气象,52(2):160-173.
LI Jingnan,LEI Lei,XUE Luyu,2026.Characteristics and Forecasting Factors of Flash Heavy Rainfall in Beijing Daxing International Airport Region[J].Meteor Mon,52(2):160-173.
