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投稿时间:2025-10-11 修订日期:2025-12-09
投稿时间:2025-10-11 修订日期:2025-12-09
中文摘要: 2025年夏季中国中东部地区主雨带位于北方,华北中北部、内蒙古中南部、陕西北部等地降水较常年同期偏多5成至2倍,汛情灾情重。东部地区雨季进程呈现前期偏晚、后期偏早的特征,华北雨季开始之早、雨季之长、降水量之多均为历史之最。夏季西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)异常偏北和东亚夏季风偏强,是北方多雨的直接原因。此外,东亚大气环流季节内变化对夏季逐月降水异常空间分布的影响较大,而热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)异常活动是导致东亚大气环流季节内变化的重要原因之一。6月,东北冷涡活动频繁,与偏强、偏北的副高相配合,导致江淮流域入梅偏早、梅雨持续性强,梅雨区降水显著偏多。7月,MJO长时间活动在海洋性大陆至西太平洋副热带地区,促使西北太平洋副热带地区台风异常活跃、副高异常偏北,导致主雨带位于华北北部至河套地区、华南南部和东南沿海出现严重的台风雨涝。8月,MJO在非洲至印度洋区域活动,有利于副高加强西伸、南落,导致长江流域以北大范围降水偏多。
Abstract:During the summer of 2025, the rainfall belt in the central and eastern regions of China was mainly situated in the northern part. Precipitation across north-central North China, central and southern Inner Mongolia, and northern Shaanxi exceeded the climatological mean amount by 50% to 200%, result-ing in severe flooding and related disasters. The rainy season in eastern China exhibited a delayed onset, followed by an early withdrawal. In North China, the onset timing, duration, and accumulated precipita-tion of the rainy season all broke historical records. The excessive precipitation was primarily driven by the pronounced northward displacement of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the more strengthened East Asian summer monsoon. In addition, intraseasonal variations in the East Asian atmospheric circulation substantially modulated the spatial pattern of monthly precipitation anomalies. Among these influences, anomalous Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity served as a key regulator of intraseasonal circulation variability. In June, frequent Northeast cold vortex activity, combined with a stronger and northward-migrating WPSH, triggered an earlier onset and prolonged duration of the Meiyu season in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (Jianghuai) Basin, leading to significantly above-normal precipitation in the Meiyu region. In July, persistent MJO convection from the Maritime Continent to the western Pacific subtropical region promoted anomalous typhoon genesis and further northward shift of the WPSH over the northwestern Pacific. As a result, the main rainfall belt was located in the northern part of North China to Hetao Region, the southern part of South China and the southeast coast, resulting in severe typhoon rain and floods. In August, the MJO activity was enhanced in the African-Indian Ocean Region, favoring the even stronger, westward-extending and southward-moving WPSH, further increasing the rainfall amount in the areas north of the Yangtze River Basin.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3013100)、国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2442207、U2342211)、山西省基础研究计划联合资助项目(气象)(202403011232004)、中国气象局气候预测重点创新团队(CMA2023ZD03)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J025)和国家自然科学基金项目(42075017、41875093)共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 赵俊虎 | 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081 |
| 高辉 | 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081 国家气候中心气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
赵俊虎,高辉,2026.2025年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,52(1):105-118.
ZHAO Junhu,GAO Hui,2026.Characteristics and Causes of Climate Anomalies over China in Summer 2025[J].Meteor Mon,52(1):105-118.
赵俊虎,高辉,2026.2025年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,52(1):105-118.
ZHAO Junhu,GAO Hui,2026.Characteristics and Causes of Climate Anomalies over China in Summer 2025[J].Meteor Mon,52(1):105-118.
