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气象:2025,51(11):1495-1522
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强对流天气形成机制和预报研究综述
郑永光,杨波,蓝渝,盛杰,张小雯,田付友,曹艳察,周康辉
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,北京 100081; 中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京 100081)
A Review of Mechanisms and Forecasting Technology of Severe Convective Weather
ZHENG Yongguang,YANG Bo,LAN Yu,SHENG Jie,ZHANG Xiaowen,TIAN Fuyou,CAO Yancha,ZHOU Kanghui
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; CMA Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2025-03-09    修订日期:2025-08-25
中文摘要: 强对流天气的致灾性和精准监测预报得到广泛关注。文章总结了各类典型对流风暴和强对流天气的主要特征、发生条件、形成机制和双偏振多普勒天气雷达观测特征等,梳理了基本概念,概述了强对流天气的预报思路、监测预报技术,并对未来的工作进行展望。近年来的主要进展包括:重力波是夜间对流风暴的重要触发机制;强垂直风切变、弱对流有效位能环境的强对流天气形成过程中,γ中尺度涡旋发挥关键作用;超级单体强上升气流对降水粒子的分选作用使得双偏振天气雷达观测特征非常突出,ZDR柱、ZDR弧、KDP足等揭示了超级单体更多微物理特征和动力结构;华南大部分的弓形回波由准线状对流系统(QLCS)与其前方的对流单体合并形成;中涡旋的形成机制比中气旋更为复杂多样;中气旋和中涡旋等对上升运动的加强作用是极端强降水形成机制的重要组成部分,这些涡旋与弓形回波的后侧入流急流共同作用也是极端雷暴大风的重要形成机制之一;很多产生短时强降水的对流风暴介于大陆型和热带海洋型二者之间,发现华南瞬时极端雨强越强,对流风暴有更多的液态和冰水含量;直径≥5.0 cm的冰雹主要由超级单体生成,冰雹的形成过程为穿越上升气流的气旋式弯曲轨迹,几乎没有螺旋式轨迹或循环增长路径;龙卷形成的关键是近地表垂直涡度形成、集中和加强;高分辨率数值预报和深度学习技术显著提升了强对流天气监测预报预警的精准度;百米级精细机理和超高分辨率数值预报以及全面融合物理规律的深度学习模型研究是未来发展的主要方面。
Abstract:The disastrous nature of severe convective weather and the need for its accurate monitoring and forecasting have garnered widespread attention. This paper summarizes the main characteristics, environments, formation mechanisms, and dual-polarization Doppler weather radar observation features of various typical types of convective storms and severe convective weather. It presents fundamental concepts and understanding, briefly outlines forecasting approaches and monitoring techniques for severe convective weather, and provides prospects for future work. In recent years, main advances are as follows. Gravity waves are an important type of trigger mechanisms of nocturnal convective storms. The key formation mechanisms of severe convective weather in low convective available potential energy environments with strong vertical wind shear are on meso-γ scale vortices, which have been significantly understood. The sorting effect of supercell updrafts on precipitation particles results in highly distinctive dual-polarization radar signatures, and the signatuers such as ZDR column, ZDR arc, KDP foot have revealed more charatericstics of microphysical processes and dynamical structure of supercells. Most bow echoes in South China are formed through the merger of quasi-linear convective systems with pre-existing convective cells ahead of them. Mesovortices develop through multiple complex mechanisms. The intensification of updrafts by meso-γ scale vortices such as mesocylones and mesovortices is an important aspect of heavy rainfall formation mechanism. The meso-γ scale vortices, combined with rear-inflow jets of bow echoes, play a crucial role in extreme severe thunderstorm gale. A great many convective storms producing short-duration heavy rainfall often exhibit hybrid characteristics between continental and tropical maritime types, and it has been found that the heavier the instaneous extreme rainfall intensity in South China, the more the liquid and ice water content in convective storms. Hailstones with diameters ≥5.0 cm are primarily generated by supercells, and their growth rarely follows spiral trajectories or cyclic growth paths. Tornadogenesis hinges on the formation, concentration, and intensification of near-surface vertical vorticity. High-resolution numerical forecasting and deep learning techniques have significantly improved the accuracy of severe convective weather monitoring, forecasting, and warning systems. Future efforts should focus on the “about-100-m” fine-scale mechanisms and super-high-resolution numerical models, and deep learning models with fully integrating physical laws for comprehensive severe convective weather forecasting.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U2342204、42175017)和中国气象局强对流天气重点创新团队项目(CMA2022ZD07)共同资助
引用文本:
郑永光,杨波,蓝渝,盛杰,张小雯,田付友,曹艳察,周康辉,2025.强对流天气形成机制和预报研究综述[J].气象,51(11):1495-1522.
ZHENG Yongguang,YANG Bo,LAN Yu,SHENG Jie,ZHANG Xiaowen,TIAN Fuyou,CAO Yancha,ZHOU Kanghui,2025.A Review of Mechanisms and Forecasting Technology of Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1495-1522.