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气象:2025,51(11):1417-1432
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重大活动气象保障中的预报难点回顾及展望
漆梁波
(上海中心气象台, 上海 200030)
Review and Outlook on Challenges in Meteorological Service for Major Events
QI Liangbo
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2024-10-22    修订日期:2025-08-06
中文摘要: 文章回顾了近20年我国重大活动的气象保障工作,将其分为三种类型:定时定点常规天气预报、定时定点特殊天气预报、海外重大活动专项预报,探讨满足各类气象保障需求的预报服务难点之所在,并对未来重大活动气象保障及其预报支撑体系进行展望。主要结论包括:常规的定时定点天气要素预报场景中,预报难点主要集中在对流生消或有无弱降水的把握上,短期时段内,数值模式提供的天气形势预报仍是重要的决策依据,高分辨数值模式产品的辅助则是必不可少的,而短时或临近时段,齐备的观测资料和预报团队的综合分析能力则更为重要;定时定点特殊要素预报场景中,现阶段由于观测覆盖度不足、数值模式预报能力欠佳、针对性的客观预报方法缺少,无论是短期还是短时临近时段,预报团队结合观测和天气形势分析的预报经验是保障服务成功的关键,这一点在海外现场服务保障中尤为明显。未来,随着观测系统覆盖度增加、数值模式精准预报能力提升和包括AI在内的针对性的客观预报方法研发,特殊要素预报场景将逐渐转变为常规要素预报场景,预报团队的主导作用也会逐渐过渡到短时或临近阶段。为应对未来各类重大活动气象保障的需求,需加强三维全要素观测系统建设,提升数值模式精准化预报能力,推进针对性的客观预报技术研发,并加强预报团队能力建设。
Abstract:This paper reviews the meteorological service work for major events in China over the past two decades, categorizing it into three types: conventional “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast, special “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast, and special forecast for major overseas event. It explores the difficulties and challenges in providing forecasting services for different types of meteorological service needs, and provides prospects for future meteorological service and its forecasting support system for major events. The main conclusions are as follows. In conventional “fixed-time and fixed-location” weather element forecasting scenarios, the forecast challenges primarily focus on convection generation and dissipation or the occurrence of weak precipitation. Over short-term periods, the weather situation forecast provided by numerical models remains an important basis for decision-making, and the service from high-resolution numerical model products is indispensable. However, in short-time forecasting or nowcasting, the observation data and the comprehensive analytical capabilities of forecasters are more important. Due to inadequate observational coverage, limited forecast capabilities of numerical models and the lack of targeted objective forecast methods, in special “fixed-time and fixed-location” forecast scenarios involving clouds, localized winds, and localized visibility, the experience of forecasters, combined with observations and weather situation analysis, is crucial for successful service, especially in overseas on-site service support, regardless of whether it is short-time or nowcasting. With the increased observational system coverage, the improved accurate forecast capabilities of numerical models, and the development of targeted objective forecast methods including AI, the special element forecasting scenarios will gradually transition into conventional element forecast scenarios, and the leading role of the forecasting team will also gradually shift to short-time forecasting or nowcasting. To meet the meteorological service needs for various major events in the future, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of a three-dimensional full-element observation system, enhance the accurate forecasting capabilities of numerical models, promote the development of targeted objective forecasting technologies, and build a forecasting team with continuous self-learning, high generalization abilities, and strong communication skills.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507601)资助
引用文本:
漆梁波,2025.重大活动气象保障中的预报难点回顾及展望[J].气象,51(11):1417-1432.
QI Liangbo,2025.Review and Outlook on Challenges in Meteorological Service for Major Events[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1417-1432.