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气象:2025,51(11):1383-1394
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极端天气事件和天气气候一体化预报技术的现状及展望
肖子牛,潘宝祥
(中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029)
Extreme Weather Events and Integrated Forecasting Techniques for Weather and Climate: Current Status and Prospect
XIAO Ziniu,PAN Baoxiang
(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)
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投稿时间:2025-02-10    修订日期:2025-08-30
中文摘要: 极端天气事件对社会经济发展有重要的影响,极端天气的发生往往是大气环流形态与大尺度气候背景态叠加作用的结果,体现了天气和气候的统一性。文章从天气、气候的内在联系出发,分析了极端天气事件预报面临的困难和挑战,讨论了天气气候一体化模式、多圈层耦合同化和集合技术、基于深度学习和人工智能(AI)的同化概率预报技术给极端天气预报带来的机遇,指出了天气、气候学科融合和天气气候一体化预报业务建立的重要意义。
Abstract:Extreme weather events have an important impact on economic and social development. The extreme weather events often result from superimposed influence of multi-factor and multi-scale abnormal signals of climate environment. Thus, extreme weather events embody the unity of weather and climate. This paper analyzes the difficulties and challenges of extreme weather event prediction from the perspective of the internal relationship between weather and climate, and also discusses the opportunities of extreme weather forecasting which are gained from the weather and climate integration models, multi-loop coupling assimilation and ensemble technology as well as the assimilation probability prediction technology based on deep learning and AI. Finally, the significance of the integration of weather and climate disciplines and the establishment of weather and climate integrated forecasting operation system is pointed out.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007700)资助
引用文本:
肖子牛,潘宝祥,2025.极端天气事件和天气气候一体化预报技术的现状及展望[J].气象,51(11):1383-1394.
XIAO Ziniu,PAN Baoxiang,2025.Extreme Weather Events and Integrated Forecasting Techniques for Weather and Climate: Current Status and Prospect[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1383-1394.