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投稿时间:2024-09-11 修订日期:2025-05-28
投稿时间:2024-09-11 修订日期:2025-05-28
中文摘要: 目前数值天气预报模式风要素预报的精细化程度不能满足内河航运需求,且对不同区域的适应程度不同。将湖北省包含长江航道的西部丘陵、中部平原作为研究区域,参照中国区域多源融合实况分析1 km分辨率(ART_1 km,地面)10 m风实况产品,分析了欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率大气模式确定性预报产品(EC-HRES)与中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报模式(CMA-MESO)的10 m风预报在研究区域的适应性,并构建U-Net++深度卷积网络模型,实现风速预报的降尺度订正。订正模型通过改进采样模块,在损失函数中增加地形项和航道区域项,增加了模型的表达能力和鲁棒性,提升了航道区域的订正效果。检验表明该方法可以有效降低数值模式在航道区域的风速预报误差。
中文关键词: 风降尺度订正,内河航运,U-Net++
Abstract:The refinement level of wind forecast by numerical prediction models cannot meet the needs of inland waterway transportation, and its adaptability to different regions varies. This article takes most of western hilly area and central plain area in Hubei Province, including parts of the Yangtze River waterway, as the research areas. Referring to the 10 m wind real-time product of ART_1 km, this article analyzes the adaptability of 10 m wind forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts high-resolution atmospheric model deterministic forecasting product (EC-HRES) and the China Meteorological Administration mesoscale model forecasting product (CMA-MESO) in the research areas. A U-Net++ deep convolutional network model is constructed to achieve downscaling correction of wind speed forecast. The correction model improves the sampling module and adds waterway item and terrain item into the loss function, enhancing expressive ability and robustness of the model and improving the correction effect on the waterway. The verification result shows that this method can effectively reduce the prediction error of wind speed made by numerical prediction models in the waterway areas.
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基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J071)、云南省气象局“揭榜挂帅”项目(YNJBGS202306)和中国气象局公共气象服务中心业务基金项目(M2023003)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
赵瑞 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 |
冯蕾 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 |
杨晓丹 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 |
林明宇 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 |
王然 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 |
李曲 | 湖北省气象台,武汉 430074 |
引用文本:
赵瑞,冯蕾,杨晓丹,林明宇,王然,李曲,2025.内河航道区域数值预报模式风速降尺度订正研究[J].气象,51(8):928-940.
ZHAO Rui,FENG Lei,YANG Xiaodan,LIN Mingyu,WANG Ran,LI Qu,2025.Research on Downscaling Correction of Wind Speed in Numerical Prediction Models for Inland Waterway Areas[J].Meteor Mon,51(8):928-940.
赵瑞,冯蕾,杨晓丹,林明宇,王然,李曲,2025.内河航道区域数值预报模式风速降尺度订正研究[J].气象,51(8):928-940.
ZHAO Rui,FENG Lei,YANG Xiaodan,LIN Mingyu,WANG Ran,LI Qu,2025.Research on Downscaling Correction of Wind Speed in Numerical Prediction Models for Inland Waterway Areas[J].Meteor Mon,51(8):928-940.
