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气象:2025,51(7):817-829
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秋汛期汉江上游大洪水事件特征及大尺度环流分析
王孝慈,孟英杰,周耘逸,王海燕,王继竹,李波,祁海霞
(中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京 100081; 湖北省气象台,武汉 430074; 长江流域气象中心,武汉 430074; 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 全国暴雨研究中心/中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430205; 三峡国家气候观象台,湖北宜昌443099; 三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌 443000)
Characteristics and Large-Scale Circulation Analysis of Major Flood Events in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River During Autumn Flood Season
WANG Xiaoci,MENG Yingjie,ZHOU Yunyi,WANG Haiyan,WANG Jizhu,LI Bo,QI Haixia
(CMA Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing 100081; Hubei Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074; Meteorological Center of the Yangtze River Basin, Wuhan 430074; National Rainstorm Research Center/CMA Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205; Sanxia National Climate Observatory, Hubei, Yichang 443099; Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch and Communication Center, Hubei, Yichang 443000)
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投稿时间:2024-06-19    修订日期:2025-01-15
中文摘要: 为给秋汛期汉江上游大洪水天气预报提供参考,基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文实况观测资料,研究了2000年以来汉江上游秋汛期大洪水的水情、雨情特征、大尺度环流形势特征以及致洪暴雨成因,结果表明:进入21世纪秋汛期汉江流域洪水过程逐渐增多。致洪暴雨中心主要位于汉江上游南部和西部,即汉江流域南侧的米仓山、大巴山一带,安康水库以上的沿江河谷一带,及外方山南麓和伏牛山西南坡处的丹江河段。洪水峰值呈现单峰、双峰和多峰型。单峰型洪水过程持续时间最短,多峰型持续时间最长。从过程最大降水开始至洪峰出现,平均历时43 h,当起始入库流量超过4500 m3·s-1以上时,洪峰形成所需时长将大为缩短。从大尺度环流特征来看,汉江上游秋汛期降水偏多与欧亚中高纬阻塞系统强盛,西太洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,南亚高压及副热带西风急流偏北密切相关,高空辐散场大值区对应汉江上游所在区域,低层至高层的垂直运动增强,有利于致洪暴雨的发生。汉江上游秋汛期大洪水年源自阿拉伯海经由印度半岛和南海南部向北输送的水汽异常增多、西太平洋向西输送的水汽异常增多,为致洪暴雨的发生提供了异常充足的水汽供给。
Abstract:To provide a reference for weather forecasting of major floods in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River during autumn flood season, based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and conventional meteorological and hydrological observation data, we analyze the water regimen and rainfall characteristics, large-scale circulation characteristics, and causes for flood-causing rainstorm of major floods in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River during autumn flood season since 2000. The results showed that the flood processes in the Hanjiang River Basin have gradually increased during autumn flood season since the 21st century. The flood-causing rainstorm center in autumn flood season is mainly located in the south and west of the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, that is, the Micang Mountain and Daba Mountain in the south of the Hanjiang River Basin, the river valley in the upstream of the Ankang Reservoir, and the Danjiang River section at the southern foot of the Waifang Mountain and the westsouth slope of the Funiu Mountain. The peak of floods usually presents in the patterns of single peak, double peak or multiple peak. The duration of a single peak flood process is the shortest, while the duration of a multipeak flood process is the longest. The duration from the onset of maximum precipitation to the appearance of the flood peak is 43 h on average. When the initial inflow exceeds 4500 m3·s-1, the time required for the formation of the flood peak will be greatly shortened. From the perspective of large-scale circulation characteristics, the abnormal precipita-tion in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River in autumn flood season is closely correlated to the strong blocking system in the mid-high latitudes over the Eurasia, the stronger and westward Western Pacific subtropical high, the northward South Asia high and subtropical westerly jet flow. The high-level divergence large-value area corresponds to the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. The vertical motion from low to high levels is enhanced, which is conducive to the occurrence of flood-causing rainstorm. The water vapor transported northward from the Arabian Sea through the Indian Peninsula and the southern South China Sea and westward from the Western Pacific in autumn flood season flood year in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River has increased abnormally, providing an unusually sufficient water vapor supply for the occurrence of flood-causing rainstorm.
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基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFD099)、中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(24SWQXZ029)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J018)、中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2421020002)和中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室项目(2023BHR-Y10)共同资助
引用文本:
王孝慈,孟英杰,周耘逸,王海燕,王继竹,李波,祁海霞,2025.秋汛期汉江上游大洪水事件特征及大尺度环流分析[J].气象,51(7):817-829.
WANG Xiaoci,MENG Yingjie,ZHOU Yunyi,WANG Haiyan,WANG Jizhu,LI Bo,QI Haixia,2025.Characteristics and Large-Scale Circulation Analysis of Major Flood Events in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River During Autumn Flood Season[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):817-829.