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气象:2025,51(6):675-685
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登陆台风热力不对称结构对路径偏折的影响
吴胜蓝,漆梁波,余晖
(上海中心气象台,上海 200030; 中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030)
Influence of Thermal Asymmetry Structure on the Deflection of Landfall Typhoon Track
WU Shenglan,QI Liangbo,YU Hui
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2023-08-11    修订日期:2025-04-03
中文摘要: 利用中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料,对1950—2022年影响华东北部沿海地区的台风路径相对于引导气流的偏折特征进行统计分析。结果表明:54个登陆台风中,85.2%在临近登陆时刻台风实际移动路径相对引导气流出现左偏(偏折角度大于5°),沿海地形对于台风移动偏离引导气流平均会产生约6°~7°的偏折角度。临近登陆时刻台风实际移动路径与引导气流之间的偏折角度与热力不对称参数有较好对应关系。热力结构接近对称的气旋一般对应较小的偏折角度,而明显的热力不对称结构,会使得台风实际移动路径与引导气流之间的偏折角度在临近登陆前偏大的可能性增加。沿海地形在临近登陆时刻易激发气旋前进方向左侧不对称对流活动,对流层低层厚度的增加影响热力结构分布,从而引起台风实际移动路径往引导气流方向左偏。但登陆台风左侧对流发展,有时也可使原本不对称性较大的台风趋于对称,实际业务应用中不能仅仅简单地依据不对称性的大小判断路径偏折角度,而应该更关注临近登陆时刻不对称性的变化,做出更准确的判断决策。
Abstract:A statistical analysis of the characteristic of typhoon track deflection relative to the steering flow in East China is conducted with the CMA tropical cyclone best track dataset and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1950 to 2022. The results show that 85.2% of 54 landfall typhoons’ tracks deviate to the left of the steering flow at the time of landfall, and the coastal terrain can produce an averaged deflection angle of about 6°-7° from the steering flow. The deflection angle between the typhoon tracks and the steering flow at the landfall time has a good correspondence with the thermal asymmetry parameters. Generally, a cyclone with a nearly thermal symmetric structure at the time of landfall corresponds to a smaller deflection angle, while the obvious thermal asymmetric structure would increase the possibility of a large deflection angle. The coastal terrain is prone to triggering asymmetric convection on the left side of the cyclone near the landfall, affecting the distribution of thermal structure and causing the typhoon tracks to deviate to the left of the steering flow. The development of convection on the left side of the cyclone can sometimes decrease the thermal asymmetry parameter at the time of landfall. So, more attention should be paid to the evolution of thermal asymmetry near the landfall instead of the asymmetry itself for more accurate prediction of typhoon track deflection.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U2142206)和中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2024QN02)共同资助
引用文本:
吴胜蓝,漆梁波,余晖,2025.登陆台风热力不对称结构对路径偏折的影响[J].气象,51(6):675-685.
WU Shenglan,QI Liangbo,YU Hui,2025.Influence of Thermal Asymmetry Structure on the Deflection of Landfall Typhoon Track[J].Meteor Mon,51(6):675-685.