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气象:2025,51(5):636-644
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2025年2月大气环流和天气分析——冷空气和南支槽活跃导致大范围雨雪
运晓博,杨寅,刘海知
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Analysis of the February 2025 Atmospheric Circulation and Weather
YUN Xiaobo,YANG Yin,LIU Haizhi
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2025-03-28    修订日期:2025-04-29
中文摘要: 2025年2月北半球大气环流主要特征为极涡呈偶极型分布,东半球极涡较常年偏弱,分裂出低涡控制中纬度西北太平洋地区,位于东亚地区东部的平均槽较常年偏强,南支槽位置偏东且活跃。2月全国平均气温较常年同期偏低0.4℃,东北地区南部、内蒙古中部、华北北部、贵州西部、广西西部等地偏低2~4℃;平均降水量较常年同期偏少约35%,新疆、内蒙古中西部、华北、黄淮中西部、江淮、华南中东部等地偏少80%以上,但西南地区大部、西北地区中东部降水量偏多100%以上。月内冷空气活动频繁,出现2次较强冷空气和1次寒潮天气过程,其中6—8日的寒潮过程造成我国中东部大部地区剧烈降温和显著低温。南支槽引导低纬暖湿空气输送至我国南方地区,并与南下冷空气交汇产生5次大范围雨雪天气过程。预报难点集中在中短期时效内如何应用多源实况观测及时开展预报检验,以调整高低空系统强度和移动路径,提高降温和雨雪预报准确率。
Abstract:The main characteristics of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February 2025 are as follows. The polar vortex was distributed in a dipole-shaped pattern. The polar vortex in the Eastern Hemisphere, located over the central Siberian Plateau to the Sea of Okhotsk, was weaker than normal, and a low vortex which was split from the polar vortex controlled the mid-latitude northwestern Pacific Region. The average trough above the eastern part of East Asia was stronger than usual, and the southern branch trough was more eastward and active. The national mean temperature in February was 0.4℃ lower than in the same period of previous years, while the mean temperatures in southern part of Northeast China, central Inner Mongolia, northern part of North China, western Guizhou Province and western Guangxi Province were 2-4℃ lower than usual. The national average precipitation was about 35% less than normal. The precipitation in Xinjiang, west-central Inner Mongolia, North China, the west-central part of the Huanghuai Region, the Jianghuai Region, and the east-central part of South China was more than 80% less than usual. However, most parts of Southwest China and the east-central part of Northwest China received precipitation more than doubled. During this month, cold air activities occurred frequently and there were two strong cold air processes and one cold wave event, among which the cold wave from 6 to 8 February caused a sharp drop in temperature and significant low temperature. The southern branch trough guided the warm-moist air from low latitudes to flow into southern China, where it joined the southward-moving cold air, leading to five large-scale rain and snow events. Overall, the key challenge in forecasting lies in how to timely use multi-source observational real-time data within medium- and short-term lead time period to conduct forecast verification, adjust intensity and movement paths of high- and low-level systems, and improve the accuracy of temperature drop and precipitation forecasts.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P448,P458    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J015)、全国暴雨研究开放基金(BYKJ2024Z11)和中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室基金(23SWQXM040)共同资助
引用文本:
运晓博,杨寅,刘海知,2025.2025年2月大气环流和天气分析——冷空气和南支槽活跃导致大范围雨雪[J].气象,51(5):636-644.
YUN Xiaobo,YANG Yin,LIU Haizhi,2025.Analysis of the February 2025 Atmospheric Circulation and Weather[J].Meteor Mon,51(5):636-644.