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投稿时间：2024-06-16 修订日期：2025-01-15
投稿时间：2024-06-16 修订日期：2025-01-15
中文摘要: 基于2019—2023年5—10月浙江省网格化观测和数值模式预报降水数据，以浙江省32座大型水库为研究对象，采用多种指标评估了多模式最优集成预报（OCF）模式对流域面雨量的预报精度，并与欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式（EC模式）预报结果进行了对比分析。结果表明：OCF模式对水库流域面雨量的预报精度与水库集水面积、所在地理位置以及引发降水的天气过程相关。整体而言，OCF模式对集水面积较大的大一型水库面雨量预报精度高于大二型水库；模式的预报误差主要来源于漏报，通过降低漏报率，OCF模式可以显著提升浙中东部地区大二型水库面雨量的预报质量，尤其在预报难度较大的大雨及以上等级面雨量预报中较EC模式有明显优势；OCF模式的预报精度随着预报时效的延长逐渐降低，但其对中雨及以上等级面雨量的预报精度较EC模式有显著正调整。对于不同强降水过程而言，OCF模式在梅汛期（台汛期）对主要受梅雨（台风）影响的水库流域预报能力更高且较EC模式表现更好；OCF模式在梅汛期和台汛期整体上均表现出预报能力随着预报时效的临近逐渐提升的特征，但受台风路径预报精度影响，后者更显著、波动更大，较EC模式在24～120 h的大部分预报时效内均有明显优势。以上结果可为开展水文气象预报服务提供必要的参考。
中文关键词: 大型水库，面雨量，数值模式，最优集成，精度评估
Abstract:Based on the 2019-2023 grid rainfall observation and multi-model forecasts in Zhejiang Province during the flood season from May to October, the accuracy of the areal rainfall forecasts for 32 large-sized reservoirs within the basin of Zhejiang Province by multi-model objective consensus forecasting (OCF) is evaluated by means of various indicators and methods, and the results are further compared with those of the model of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC model). The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model is related to the catchment area of reservoir, the location of reservoir and the synoptic processes bringing precipitation. On the whole, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type Ⅰ large-sized reservoirs is higher than that for Type Ⅱ. The forecast error of OCF model mainly comes from the missing alarm. By reducing the missing alarm rate, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type Ⅱ large-sized reservoirs located in eastern part of the Central Zhejiang can be significantly improved. Especially for the areal rainfall over 15 mm, it has obvious advantages compared to EC model. Although the forecasting accuracy of OCF model decreases gradually with the extension of forecast lead time, it has better effect than EC model in forecasting the areal rainfall over 6 mm. For different heavy precipitation processes in Zhejiang Province, OCF model has higher forecasting ability and better performance than EC model for the reservoir basins that are mainly affected by Meiyu (typhoon) during Meiyu period (typhoon period). The forecasting accuracy of OCF model improves with the approach of forecast lead time during both Meiyu and typhoon periods. However, owing to the influence of the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks, the latter fluctuates dramatically and has obvious advantages relative to EC model in most forecast lead time of 24-120 h. The above results could provide some necessary reference for the hydrometeorological service.
keywords: large-sized reservoir, areal rainfall, numerical model, objective consensus, accuracy evaluation
文章编号： 中图分类号：P456 文献标志码：
基金项目:浙江省自然科学基金联合基金项目（LZJMY24D050004、LZJMY24D050007）和浙江省气象局科技计划项目（2023ZD12）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 王晨迪 | 浙江省预警信息发布中心,杭州 310000 |
| 朱占云 | 浙江省气象服务中心,杭州 310000 |
| 王敬凯 | 成都信息工程大学,成都 610225 |
| 张加易 | 浙江省气象服务中心,杭州 310000 |
| 张玮玮 | 浙江省气象服务中心,杭州 310000 |
引用文本：
王晨迪,朱占云,王敬凯,张加易,张玮玮,2025.基于多模式最优集成的浙江省水库流域面雨量预报精度评估[J].气象,51(3):324-336.
WANG Chendi,ZHU Zhanyun,WANG Jingkai,ZHANG Jiayi,ZHANG Weiwei,2025.Accuracy Evaluation of the Areal Rainfall Forecasts for Reservoir Basin in Zhejiang Province Based on Objective Consensus of Multi-Model Forecasts[J].Meteor Mon,51(3):324-336.
王晨迪,朱占云,王敬凯,张加易,张玮玮,2025.基于多模式最优集成的浙江省水库流域面雨量预报精度评估[J].气象,51(3):324-336.
WANG Chendi,ZHU Zhanyun,WANG Jingkai,ZHANG Jiayi,ZHANG Weiwei,2025.Accuracy Evaluation of the Areal Rainfall Forecasts for Reservoir Basin in Zhejiang Province Based on Objective Consensus of Multi-Model Forecasts[J].Meteor Mon,51(3):324-336.
