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气象:2025,51(1):110-121
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2024年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析
李想,郑志海
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Climate Anomalies over China in Summer 2024
LI Xiang,ZHENG Zhihai
(National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2024-10-15    修订日期:2024-11-29
中文摘要: 2024年夏季,中国降水偏多、气温偏高。全国平均气温22.3℃,为1961年以来历史同期第一,高温天气过程偏早、范围广、极端性强;降水空间分布上呈“东多西少”分布,东北南部、内蒙古中部、华北东部、华东北部、华中北部和西南部、西北地区东部等地降水较常年同期偏多5成至1倍。夏季台风生成个数和登陆个数均偏少。2023年5月开始的中等强度El Nin〗o事件在2024年5月结束并向冷海温发展,2023/2024年冬季以来,热带印度洋和北大西洋海温均为历史同期最暖,热带三大洋的异常海温分布有利于夏季西太平洋副热带高压增强,将充沛的太平洋和印度洋水汽输送到中国东部,使得东部季风区降水大范围偏多,强降水过程多。
Abstract:In the summer of 2024, the overall climate of China was characterized by high temperature with more rainfall. The national average summer temperature ranked the first highest since 1961. The high temperature processes occurred earlier than normal, influenced more regions and had strong extremes. The overall precipitation was generally above normal, with a distribution of more in eastern China and less in western China. The precipitation was more than the normal by 50% to 100% in the southern part of Northeast China, central Inner Mongolia, eastern part of North China, northern part of East China, northern and southwestern parts of Central China, and eastern part of Northwest China. During this summer time, both the generated typhoons and the landfall typhoons were less than normal. The moderate intensity El Nino which began in May 2023 ended in May 2024 and transitioned to La Nina. At the same time, since the winter of 2023/2024, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean and North Atlantic have been at historical highs. The unusual distribution of tropical sea temperatures has been conducive to strengthening the Western Pacific subtropical high, which transported abundant moisture from Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean to eastern China, resulting in widespread precipitation and frequent heavy precipitation processes in the eastern monsoon region of China.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2142207、U2342205)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175078)、国家气候中心能源气候服务团队建设(NCCCXTD003)和中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(2423020054)共同资助
引用文本:
李想,郑志海,2025.2024年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,51(1):110-121.
LI Xiang,ZHENG Zhihai,2025.Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Climate Anomalies over China in Summer 2024[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):110-121.