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投稿时间:2024-06-12 修订日期:2024-12-04
投稿时间:2024-06-12 修订日期:2024-12-04
中文摘要: 选取北方三个试验区域(北京和天津、陕西和甘肃、青海),使用交通气象站观测资料、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CLDAS V2.0)地表温度产品、中国逐小时降水实时融合实况分析产品(CMPAS)和FY-4A反演地表辐射产品,研究路面温度的变化特征及其与环境气象因子之间的关系。基于线性回归、随机森林、深度神经网络方法,分季节、分时段构建路面温度实况模型,开展模型效果检验,探讨不同方法、不同数据组合的效果以及模型的空间泛化能力。结果表明:路面温度与道路环境气象因子显著相关,但表现出明显的区域、季节和时段差异;基于不同方法构建的路面温度实况模型结果差异不大,均能较好地再现夏季路面高温和冬季路面低温的逐日变化,冬季平均误差明显低于夏季。应用卫星产品可显著提升夏季路面高温实况模型效果;模型具有较好的空间适应性,与本站模型相比,路面温度误差均表现出不同程度的增加,其中北京和天津地区误差增加幅度最小。
中文关键词: 交通气象站,多源资料,卫星反演地表辐射,路面温度
Abstract:In order to solve the problem of meteorological service for transportation operation in areas with a few observation stations, three typical regions in northern China (Beijing-Tianjin, Shaanxi-Gansu and Qinghai) are selected. The data used include the transportation weather observation data, the surface data from China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS V2.0) and Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS), as well as surface short wave and long wave radiation retrieval products from FY-4A. The change characteristics of road surface temperature and its relationship with environmental meteorological factors are analyzed. Three methods (linear regression, random forest and deep neural network) are employed to construct a 1 h updated real-time road surface temperature model, and the effects of model results from different methods and different data combinations are tested. Besides, the spatial generalization ability of the model is also explored. The results show that the road surface temperature is significantly correlated to the environmental meteorological factors, but show different feactures in different regions, seasons and time periods. The independent test shows that there is no much difference among the model results based on different methods. All the model results can well reproduce the daily changes of road surface high temperature in summer and road surface low temperature in winter. The mean error in winter is significantly lower than that in summer. The application of satellite radiation products has a significant improvement effect on the road surface high temperature observation model results in summer. The model has good spatial adaptability. However, compared with the model constructed according to local observations, the error of the model using data from nearby traffic stations in the same climate region shows an increasing trend at different degrees, of which the error increasing in Beijing-Tianjin region is the smallest.
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基金项目:云南省气象局“揭榜挂帅”项目(YNJBGS202306)资助
引用文本:
冯蕾,袁晓玉,赵瑞,苗蕾,林明宇,王然,2025.基于多源资料的路面温度实况模型构建[J].气象,51(1):97-109.
FENG Lei,YUAN Xiaoyu,ZHAO Rui,MIAO Lei,LIN Mingyu,WANG Ran,2025.Construction of Real-Time Road Surface Temperature Model Based on Multi-Source Data[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):97-109.
冯蕾,袁晓玉,赵瑞,苗蕾,林明宇,王然,2025.基于多源资料的路面温度实况模型构建[J].气象,51(1):97-109.
FENG Lei,YUAN Xiaoyu,ZHAO Rui,MIAO Lei,LIN Mingyu,WANG Ran,2025.Construction of Real-Time Road Surface Temperature Model Based on Multi-Source Data[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):97-109.