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气象:2024,50(9):1081-1092
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三峡库区蓄水前后夏季小时降水变化特征
唐永兰,徐桂荣,祁海霞
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430205; 三峡国家气候观象台,湖北宜昌 443099)
Variation Characteristics of Summer Hourly Precipitation Before and After Impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
TANG Yonglan,XU Guirong,QI Haixia
(CMA Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205; Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory, Hubei, Yichang 443099)
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投稿时间:2023-04-01    修订日期:2024-05-22
中文摘要: 利用国家气象信息中心小时降水资料,结合三峡库区地形的多样性,分析了库区蓄水前(1992—2002年)和蓄水后(2003—2021年)夏季(6—8月)小时降水时空变化以及不同类型强降水事件(HRE)变化特征。结果表明:蓄水后小时降水的降水量和频次减少,而强度增加;降水变化存在明显的地理分布规律,降水量、频次、强度在库区中北部增加,且多位于长江以北地区;降水量、频次在库区西南部减少,强度在库区中南部和西北部减弱,且多位于31°N以南。蓄水前后小时降水的日变化峰值时间位相的空间差异程度表现为降水强度>降水量>降水频次;蓄水后降水量、频次、强度呈增加趋势的站点增多,且降水量和强度的日变化峰值时间位相在高海拔山区具有位相前移特征。蓄水前后各等级小时降水的降水概率和降水占比变化不明显,其中降水概率在[0.1,0.5)mm等级最大,≥20mm等级最小;降水占比在[1,5)mm等级最大,[0.1,0.5)mm等级最小,≥20mm等级约为15%。蓄水后小时降水的日变化特征更加明显,其中≥20mm等级的小时降水量和频次的双峰结构更为突出,其他等级的小时降水量和频次的峰值时间范围有扩大趋势,而各等级小时降水强度的次日尺度波动更频繁。蓄水前后HRE均是短历时型最多,长历时型最少,且短历时型HRE多开始于下午,中历时型和长历时型HRE多开始于夜间;蓄水后有利于HRE维持,短历时型HRE在中午和下午开始的概率增加,中历时型和长历时型HRE在清晨开始的概率增加。
Abstract:Based on hourly precipitation data from the National Meteorological Information Centre of CMA, combined with the diversity of the terrain, the temporal and spatial characteristics of hourly precipitation, as well as characteristics of different types of heavy rainfall event (HRE) before (1992-2002) and after (2003-2021) the impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in summer (June-August) are analyzed. The results are as follows. After impoundment, the precipitation and frequency decrease but intensity increases. There is an obvious geographical distribution pattern of precipitation changes, with precipitation, frequency and intensity increasing in the north central part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, mostly located in the area north of the Yangtze River, and the precipitation and frequency decrease in the southwest and the intensity weakens in the south central part and northwest of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, mostly located to the south of 31°N. The spatial difference degree of diurnal peak phases of hourly precipitation before and after impoundment is precipitation intensity>precipitation>precipitation frequency. After impoundment, the stations with increasing trend of precipitation, frequency and intensity become more, and the diurnal peak phases of precipitation and intensity have the feature of phase advance in high altitude mountainous areas. There is no significant change in the precipitation probability and proportion of hourly precipitation at various grades before and after impoundment. The precipitation probability is the maximum at the grade of [0.1, 0.5) mm, and the minimum at the grade of ≥20 mm. The precipitation proportion shows the maximum at the grade of [1, 5) mm, the minimum at the grade of [0.1, 0.5) mm, and about 15% at the grade of ≥20 mm. The diurnal variation characteristics of hourly precipitation after the impoundment are more obvious. The bimodal structures of precipitation and frequency of hourly precipitation at the grade of ≥20 mm are more prominent, while the peak time ranges of precipitation and frequency of hourly precipitation at other grades tend to expand, and the diurnal scale fluctuations of hourly precipitation intensity at each grade are more frequent. Analysis of different duration types of HRE shows that before and after impoundment, the short-duration type of HRE is the highest and the long-duration type is the lowest. The short-duration type of HRE mostly starts in the afternoon, while medium-duration and long-duration types of HRE mostly start at night. After impoundment, the condition is beneficial for HRE maintenance. The probability of short-duration type of HRE starting at noon and in the afternoon increases, and the probability of medium-duration and long-duration types of HRE starting in the morning increase.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41975058)、湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2022Z02)和长江流域气象开放基金项目(CJLY2022Y06)共同资助
引用文本:
唐永兰,徐桂荣,祁海霞,2024.三峡库区蓄水前后夏季小时降水变化特征[J].气象,50(9):1081-1092.
TANG Yonglan,XU Guirong,QI Haixia,2024.Variation Characteristics of Summer Hourly Precipitation Before and After Impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Meteor Mon,50(9):1081-1092.