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气象:2024,50(6):746-755
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一种华北夏季潜势雨季监测方法
郝立生,崔童,马宁,何丽烨
(天津市气候中心,天津 300074;国家气候中心,北京 100081)
A Method for Monitoring Summer Potential Rainy Season in North China
HAO Lisheng,CUI Tong,MA Ning,HE Liye
(Tianjin Climate Centre, Tianjin 300074;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2023-05-11    修订日期:2024-03-05
中文摘要: 针对华北夏季雨季监测存在的难题,提出了华北夏季潜势雨季概念,并建立了一种新监测方法——比湿副高法。主要监测结果如下:1961—2022年平均华北夏季雨季开始日期为7月10日,结束日期为8月8日,雨季长度为28 d;华北雨季起止时间无明显长期变化趋势,但年代际变化明显。该方法监测到的华北夏季雨季降水量、雨季综合强度指数与夏季降水量变化非常一致,为高度正相关,表明监测到的各雨季参数对华北夏季降水变化具有很好的指示性。华北夏季雨季开始、结束伴随着大气环流的明显变化:850 hPa层东亚副热带夏季风增强与减弱、30°N以北华北地区大气比湿迅速增大与减小;500 hPa 层高度场在华北地区出现正、负距平中心,西北太平洋副热带高压在东亚沿岸开始明显北抬或东撤;200 hPa层高空西风急流轴由37.5°N附近北移到41.5°N附近或由44.5°N附近南移到40.5°N附近。
Abstract:In view of the difficulties in monitoring summer rainy season in North China, the concept of the summer potential rainy season in North China is proposed, and a new monitoring method, i.e., the speci-fic humidity subtropical high method, is established. The main monitoring results are as follows. The average start date of the summer rainy season in North China from 1961 to 2022 is 10 July, the end date is 8 August, and the rainy season lasts for 28 days. The start and end time of the rainy season in North China has no obvious long-term change trend, but the interdecadal change is significant. The summer rainy season precipitation and the comprehensive intensity index of rainy season monitored by this method in North China are very consistent with the changes in summer precipitation, which is a high positive correlation. This indicates that the monitored rainy season parameters have a good indication of the changes in summer precipitation in North China. The start and end of the summer rainy season in North China are accompanied by significant changes in atmospheric circulation. The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon at 850 hPa strengthens and weakens, and the atmospheric specific humidity in North China north of 30°N rapidly increases and decreases. The 500 hPa height field presents positive and negative anomaly centers in North China, and the Northwest Pacific subtropical high begins to significantly lift northward or retreat eastward along the coast of East Asia. The upper westerly jet axis at 200 hPa moves north from 37.5°N to 41.5°N or south from 44.5°N to 40.5°N.
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基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J30、CXFZ2022J017)共同资助
引用文本:
郝立生,崔童,马宁,何丽烨,2024.一种华北夏季潜势雨季监测方法[J].气象,50(6):746-755.
HAO Lisheng,CUI Tong,MA Ning,HE Liye,2024.A Method for Monitoring Summer Potential Rainy Season in North China[J].Meteor Mon,50(6):746-755.