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气象:2024,50(6):756-769
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天津高铁沿线风致轻漂浮物入侵灾害气象风险分析及应用
任丽媛,张希帆,孙玫玲,梁冬坡,苗芮,章志豪
(天津市气象服务中心,天津 300074;天津市气象科学研究所,天津 300074;天津市气候中心,天津 300074;中国铁路北京局集团有限公司供电部,北京 100038)
Meteorological Risk Analysis and Application of Wind-Induced Light Floating Objects Invasion Disaster Along the Tianjin High-Speed Railway
REN Liyuan,ZHANG Xifan,SUN Meiling,LIANG Dongpo,MIAO Rui,ZHANG Zhihao
(Tianjin Meteorological Service Center, Tianjin 300074;Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Tianjin 300074;Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074;Power Supply Department of China Railway Beijing Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100038)
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投稿时间:2023-05-06    修订日期:2024-04-08
中文摘要: 为确定高铁沿线风灾隐患路段,减少大风引起的漂浮物入侵灾害发生,基于天津地区高铁沿线气象站观测资料、高分系列卫星遥感影像数据、高铁历史灾情、基础地理信息等,分析了大风对轻漂浮物入侵灾害的影响,给出天津不同区域路段灾害发生的风速阈值范围和主导风向,并基于自然灾害风险评估理论建立了高铁风致轻漂浮物入侵灾害气象风险分析模型,形成风险区划。研究结果表明:高铁沿线轻漂浮物入侵灾害主要出现在春季和冬季,占全年总量的73.75%,午后12—15时是发生的最集中时段,且在天津中部和东部区域发生最多,西北区域其次,西南区域最少。灾害主要发生在最大风风速为8~17 m·s-1和极大风风速为13~21 m·s-1的风速区间,当风向为偏西风到偏北风,风向与线路呈45°以上夹角时,更易引发灾害。运用卫星遥感技术手段,能够较好地识别高铁沿线隐患物分布情况,最高识别准确率可达72.7%。综合风速风向特征、隐患分布情况等,建立高铁风灾气象风险分析模型,区划结果显示,京沪高铁和京津城际风险较高,津秦高铁次之,津霸客专最低。高风险路段主要集中在京沪高铁武清区段北部、北辰区段、西青区段,京津城际的北辰区段、东丽区段东部和滨海新区段以及津秦高铁的东丽区段东部。
Abstract:In order to determine the sections with potential wind disasters along the high-speed railway and reduce the occurrence of floating objects invasion disasters caused by strong winds, based on the observation data of meteorological stations along the high-speed railway in Tianjin, high-resolution series of satellite remote sensing image data, historical disaster of high-speed railway and basic geographic information, this article analyzes the impact of strong wind on the invasion disaster of light floating objects and proposes the wind speed threshold range and dominant wind direction of disasters in different regional sections of the Tianjin High-Speed Railway. Then, based the risk assessment theory of natural disasters, the meteorological risk analysis model of the wind-induced light floating objects invasion disaster of high-speed railway is established, and the risk zoning is formed. The results show that the invasion disasters of light floating objects along the high-speed railway mainly occur in spring and winter, accounting for 73.75% of the total invasion disasters of the whole year. The most concentrated occurrence time is from 12:00 BT to 15:00 BT in the afternoon, with most seen in the central and eastern parts of Tianjin and then in the northwestern and the southwestern parts in order. Disasters mainly occur in the wind speed range with the maximum wind speed of 8-17 m·s-1 and extreme wind speed of 13-21 m·s-1. When the wind direction is from west to north and the wind direction is at the angle of more than 45 ° with the line, disasters are more likely to occur. By means of satellite remote sensing technology, the distribution of hidden dangers along the Tianjin High-Speed Railway could be well identified, and the highest identification accuracy could reach 72.7%. Based on the characteristics of wind speed and wind direction and the distribution of hidden dangers, the meteorological risk analysis model of the Tianjin High-Speed Railway wind disaster is established, and the zoning results show that the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway have higher risks, followed by the Tianjin-Qinhuangdao High-Speed Railway, and the Tianjin-Bazhou Passenger Dedicated-Line has the lowest risk. High risk sections are mainly concentrated in first, the north of the Wuqing District, Beichen District and Xiqing District of the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, second, the Beichen District, the east of the Dongli District and the Binhai New Area section of the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity, and third, the east of the Dongli District of the Tianjin-Qinhuangdao High-Speed Railway.
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基金项目:中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划(N2023T007)资助
引用文本:
任丽媛,张希帆,孙玫玲,梁冬坡,苗芮,章志豪,2024.天津高铁沿线风致轻漂浮物入侵灾害气象风险分析及应用[J].气象,50(6):756-769.
REN Liyuan,ZHANG Xifan,SUN Meiling,LIANG Dongpo,MIAO Rui,ZHANG Zhihao,2024.Meteorological Risk Analysis and Application of Wind-Induced Light Floating Objects Invasion Disaster Along the Tianjin High-Speed Railway[J].Meteor Mon,50(6):756-769.