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气象:2023,49(12):1532-1541
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基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析
陶亦为,张恒德,代刊,董全,周军,刘珺
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国气象局华风气象传媒集团,北京 100081)
Application Research on Abnormal Temperature Forecast Products in China Based on Ensemble Forecast
TAO Yiwei,ZHANG Hengde,DAI Kan,DONG Quan,ZHOU Jun,LIU Jun
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2022-11-13    修订日期:2023-10-30
中文摘要: 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。
Abstract:Based on the fifth generation global reanalysis data (ERA5) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the model climate is constructed. The ensemble mean abnormal temperature forecast and abnormal temperature probability forecast products for China are constructed according to the maximum and minimum temperatures by using ECMWF ensemble forecast and standardized anomaly forecast method. The forecast performance was tested and compared with the extreme forecast index (EFI). Furthermore, based on “abnormal temperature impact matrix”, forecast index of impact degree of abnormal temperature event was constructed. The forecast application of related products was discussed through the cases of abnormal temperature events. The results show that the ensemble mean abnormal temperature forecast product based on ERA5 and ECWMF ensemble forecast has a good forecasting effect for both summer and winter abnormal temperature events in China, and the forecast performance is better than or close to EFI through comparative verification. The product can be used as a supporting product for forecasting abnormal temperature events. Abnormal temperature probability forecast products can reflect the information of abnormal temperature events predicted in the ensemble members of the set, have advantages in finding early abnormal temperature event signals in medium-range forecast, and can reflect the uncertainty information of abnormal weather forecast. The forecast index of impact degree of abnormal temperature event combines the prediction information of the probability of abnormal weather and the prediction information of the anomaly of abnormal weather. It can give the objective and quantitative prediction results of the abnormal temperature time in one product. The prediction of the abnormal low temperature event caused by a cold surge weather process proves that this index has a relatively good prediction effect. It has certain indicative significance and application prospect for the prediction and early warning of abnormal temperature events.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0300104、2017YFC1502004)共同资助
引用文本:
陶亦为,张恒德,代刊,董全,周军,刘珺,2023.基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析[J].气象,49(12):1532-1541.
TAO Yiwei,ZHANG Hengde,DAI Kan,DONG Quan,ZHOU Jun,LIU Jun,2023.Application Research on Abnormal Temperature Forecast Products in China Based on Ensemble Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,49(12):1532-1541.