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投稿时间:2022-12-05 修订日期:2023-07-09
投稿时间:2022-12-05 修订日期:2023-07-09
中文摘要: 以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的“西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集”为基准,评定了2021年西北太平洋和南海海域共22个编号台风的定位定强精度以及路径、强度、登陆点预报精度。评定结果表明:2021年,中央气象台的平均定位误差为19.7 km,较2020年(22.7 km)减少13%,平均定强误差为1.4 m·s-1,较2020年(1.2 m·s-1)略增大。国内外官方台风预报机构、全球模式及区域模式的全年路径预报平均误差较2020年有所增大,近十年(2012—2021年)主观预报和客观预报方法的路径预报平均误差没有呈现持续减小的趋势。各预报方法的强度预报平均绝对误差在2012—2017年有了一定程度的减小,但在2018—2021年没有呈现减小趋势。各主观预报和客观预报方法普遍对台风小熊、烟花、查帕卡、狮子山和圆规的24 h登陆点预报较好。
Abstract:Based on the Tropical Cyclones Best Track Dataset for the Western North Pacific compiled by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the positioning errors and intensity estimation errors as well as the track, intensity and landfall forecast errors of the 22 named typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2021 are evaluated. The verification results show that the average positioning error of typhoons made by the National Meteorological Centre, CMA, in 2021 was 19.7 km, which was 13% less than that of 2020 (22.7 km). 〖JP2〗The average intensity estimation error was 1.4 m·s-1, which was slightly higher than that of 2020 (1.2 m·s-1). The average annual track forecast errors of the official typhoon forecast agencies, global models, and regional models at home and abroad have increased compared to the errors in 2020, and the average track forecast errors of subjective and objective forecasting methods failed to have a continuous decreasing trend in 2012-2021. The mean absolute errors of intensity forecasts of all forecasting methods have generally decreased to some extent from 2012 to 2017, but did not show a decreasing trend in 2018-2021. The subjective and objective forecasting methods generally performed well in forecasting the 24 h landfall points for the typhoons Koguma, In Fa, Cempaka, Lionrock and Kompasu.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000805)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J027)共同资助
引用文本:
杨梦琪,陈国民,张喜平,白莉娜,万日金,曹庆,2023.2021年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定[J].气象,49(8):1005-1019.
YANG Mengqi,CHEN Guomin,ZHANG Xiping,BAI Lina,WAN Rijin,CAO Qing,2023.Verification on Typhoons Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2021[J].Meteor Mon,49(8):1005-1019.
杨梦琪,陈国民,张喜平,白莉娜,万日金,曹庆,2023.2021年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定[J].气象,49(8):1005-1019.
YANG Mengqi,CHEN Guomin,ZHANG Xiping,BAI Lina,WAN Rijin,CAO Qing,2023.Verification on Typhoons Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2021[J].Meteor Mon,49(8):1005-1019.