###
气象:2023,49(7):819-829
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程对比及预报偏差分析
王珊珊,钟敏,陈璇,柳草,王艳杰,章翠红,韩芳蓉
(武汉中心气象台,武汉 430074)
Comparison and Forecast Deviation Analysis of Two Snow and Rain Events in Hubei Province in 2022
WANG Shanshan,ZHONG Min,CHEN Xuan,LIU Cao,WANG Yanjie,ZHANG Cuihong,HAN Fangrong
(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 186次   下载 993
投稿时间:2022-06-06    修订日期:2023-06-19
中文摘要: 利用高空、地面观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,对2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程的环流形势和环境条件进行了对比分析,并探讨了两次过程对降水相态、降雪量及积雪深度预报的偏差及原因。结果表明2022年1月27—29日过程低槽偏西,急流相对弱且维持时间短,中低层气温高且以暖平流为主,云中冰相粒子含量低,降水相态以雨为主,降雪量主要偏差是由于降水相态预报偏差和ECMWF模式对低空急流预报偏强导致降雪量预报偏大以及对积雪融化机制预报不足使得积雪深度预报偏大。2022年2月6—7日过程低槽偏东,急流相对强且维持时间长,中低层气温更低,云中冰相粒子含量高,低层相对湿度低,主要以降雪为主,ECMWF模式对该过程雨雪量和降水相态的预报均和实况接近,但边界层气温预报偏高和积雪融化能力预报不足是造成积雪深度变化误差的主要原因。对模式降雪量和积雪深度的订正需关注云中冰相粒子的含量、近地层气温的订正以及积雪融化能力的分析。
Abstract:Based on the upper-air, surface observation and ERA5 hourly reanalysis data, the circulation situation and environmental conditions of two snow and rain events in Hubei Province in 2022 are compared and analyzed, and the errors and causes of the two events in the prediction of precipitation type, snowfall and snow depth are discussed. The results show that the trough of the 27-29 January 2022 event was westward, the jet stream was relatively weak and the maintenance duration was short. The temperature in the middle and lower troposphere was high, dominated by warm advection. The ice crystal content was low, so the precipitation type was dominated by rainfall. The main errors of snowfall were due to the deviation of precipitation type forecast, the forecast of strong low-level jet stream by the model, which led to the total snowfall amount less than that of the forecast, and the insufficient forecast of snow melting mechanism led to snow depth lower than that of the forecast. In the 6-7 February 2022 event, the trough was easterly, the jet was relatively strong and maintained for a long time, the temperature in the middle and lower troposphere was lower, the ice crystal content was high, and the relative humidity in the lower layer was low, so the precipitation was mainly dominated by snowfall. The prediction of snowfall amount and precipitation type by the ECMWF model were close to obsevations, but the high boundary layer temperature prediction and insufficient snow melting ability prediction were the main reasons for the errors of snow depth change. Therefore, correction of model snowfall amount and snow depth should focus on ice crystal content, boundary layer temperature and snow melting capacity by model.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456,P458    文献标志码:
基金项目:湖北省气象局重点课题(2022Z01、2019Z01)共同资助
引用文本:
王珊珊,钟敏,陈璇,柳草,王艳杰,章翠红,韩芳蓉,2023.2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程对比及预报偏差分析[J].气象,49(7):819-829.
WANG Shanshan,ZHONG Min,CHEN Xuan,LIU Cao,WANG Yanjie,ZHANG Cuihong,HAN Fangrong,2023.Comparison and Forecast Deviation Analysis of Two Snow and Rain Events in Hubei Province in 2022[J].Meteor Mon,49(7):819-829.