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气象:2023,49(5):588-599
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电网致灾性强降水短时临近预报评估方法研究
陈笑,何晓凤,肖擎曜,武正天,韩乐琼
(华风气象传媒集团有限责任公司,北京 100081; 北京玖天气象科技有限公司,北京 100081)
Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Disaster-Inducing Heavy Precipitation Nowcast for Power Grid
CHEN Xiao,HE Xiaofeng,XIAO Qingyao,WU Zhengtian,HAN Leqiong
(Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081; Beijing Jiutian Weather Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2022-03-07    修订日期:2022-06-22
中文摘要: 针对电网行业关注的致灾性强降水预报性能的综合评估问题,利用京津冀地区主汛期(2019年6—9月)强降水事件的专业气象服务效果检验,分别从降水目标识别与目标匹配两个角度对应用基于目标对象的检验评估方法检验短时临近预报产品进行了深度剖析。结果表明:京津冀主汛期强降水主要集中在午后至前半夜,降水强度大、范围小、漏报多、空间特征预报难;短时临近预报的强降水频次日变化的相关系数为0.78~0.94,范围日变化的相关系数为0.6~0.82,移动路径和降水强度的预报效果略优于落区的预报效果,预报时效越短,强降水事件及其空间特征的预报能力越好;所定义的综合性预报评估方法可弥补传统检验方法的不足,发掘预报的应用潜力与局限性,为精准专业气象服务提供参考。
Abstract:Model forecast performance and forewarning service validity of disastrous heavy precipitation have been among the chief concerns in professional meteorological service. In view of these concerns, the evaluation of the power-grid-system-oriented meteorological forewarning for heavy precipitation in the main flood season (June-September, 2019) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is chosen as an example, in order to carry out in-depth analysis on using MODE (method for object-based diagnostic evaluation) in the inspection of short-term forecast and nowcast from two aspects, namely, target recognition of precipitation and target matching of precipitation. The results show that heavy precipitation in the main flood season of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is mainly concentrated from afternoon to the first half of the night, characterized by large in precipitation intensity, small in range, easy false-alarms, and difficulty in predicting their spatial characteristics. The correlation coefficient of diurnal variation of the heavy precipitation frequency of short-term forecast and nowcast ranges from 0.78 to 0.94, while that of the diurnal variation of range is from 0.6 to 0.82. The forecast effect of moving path and rainfall intensity is slightly better than that of the falling area. The shorter the forecast time, the better the forecast effect of heavy precipitations and their spatial characteristics. The comprehensive forecast evaluation method put forward in the paper can make up for the shortcomings of traditional inspection methods. It can explore the potential and limitations of forecast, and provide reference for accurate and specialized meteorological services.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507804)资助
引用文本:
陈笑,何晓凤,肖擎曜,武正天,韩乐琼,2023.电网致灾性强降水短时临近预报评估方法研究[J].气象,49(5):588-599.
CHEN Xiao,HE Xiaofeng,XIAO Qingyao,WU Zhengtian,HAN Leqiong,2023.Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Disaster-Inducing Heavy Precipitation Nowcast for Power Grid[J].Meteor Mon,49(5):588-599.