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气象:2023,49(5):574-587
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复杂地形下浙江省夏季午后降水的空间估算及其影响因素
曾秀娟,李亚东,舒守娟,杜震洪,滕代高
(浙江大学地球科学学院,浙江省地学大数据与地球深部资源重点实验室,杭州 310027;浙江省气象台,杭州 310017)
Spatial Estimation and Impact Factors of Summer Afternoon Precipitation in Zhejiang Province Under Complex Terrain
ZENG Xiujuan,LI Yadong,SHU Shoujuan,DU Zhenhong,TENG Daigao
(Key Laboratory of Geoscience Big Data and Deep Resource of Zhejiang Province, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027; Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017)
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投稿时间:2022-04-26    修订日期:2023-01-16
中文摘要: 基于浙江省74个气象站点逐小时观测资料,利用普通线性回归模型和考虑空间异质性的模型,对浙江省夏季午后降水的空间估算及其影响因素进行研究。研究发现:浙江省夏季午后降水整体呈现自西南向东北递减的变化趋势,南、北两个主要降水中心形成了西南—东北走向的主雨带;地理、地形和气象要素共同对浙江省夏季午后降水的空间分布产生影响;基于神经网络考虑空间异质性的地理神经网络加权回归(geographically neural network weighted regression,GNNWR)模型,在模型性能和降水的空间估算方面都明显优于普通线性回归模型和地理加权回归模型,显示GNNWR模型在气象领域有进一步应用的价值。
Abstract:Based on hourly observation from 74 meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province, the models of ordinary linear regression and those considering spatial heterogeneity are adopted to explore the spatial estimation and impact factors of summer afternoon precipitation in Zhejiang Province in this study. It is found that the summer afternoon precipitation in Zhejiang Province shows a decreasing trend from the southwest to northeast. The two main precipitation centers in the south and north form the southwest-northeast major rain band. Geographical, topographic and meteorological factors jointly affect the spatial distribution of summer afternoon precipitation in Zhejiang Province. The model of geographically neural network weighted regression (GNNWR) based on neural network and considering the spatial heterogeneity works significantly better than the models of ordinary linear regression and the geographically weighted regression, in terms of model performance and spatial distribution pattern of estimated precipitation, which suggests that the GNNWR model has the value of further application in the field of meteorology.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41775041)和浙江省自然科学联合基金重大项目(LZJMD23D050001)共同资助
引用文本:
曾秀娟,李亚东,舒守娟,杜震洪,滕代高,2023.复杂地形下浙江省夏季午后降水的空间估算及其影响因素[J].气象,49(5):574-587.
ZENG Xiujuan,LI Yadong,SHU Shoujuan,DU Zhenhong,TENG Daigao,2023.Spatial Estimation and Impact Factors of Summer Afternoon Precipitation in Zhejiang Province Under Complex Terrain[J].Meteor Mon,49(5):574-587.