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投稿时间：2022-01-13 修订日期：2022-07-10
投稿时间：2022-01-13 修订日期：2022-07-10
中文摘要: 针对2009—2019年天津地区70次冰雹天气过程时空特征进行统计分析，并利用美国国家环境预报中心全球模式业务系统分析资料（NCEP FNL）和地面气象观测数据构建融合探空序列，对比分析不同月份、不同天气型和不同大小冰雹的环境条件差异，给出相应的环境参数指标。结果表明：天津降雹主要出现在4—9月，其中6月冰雹和大冰雹发生日数分别占49.4%、60.0%，12—20时冰雹和大冰雹发生概率分别占74.8%、100%。冰雹发生前对流有效位能（CAPE）、抬升指数（LI）、垂直风切变（SHR）、湿球0℃层高度（HWBZ）、大气可降水量（TPW）均存在明显的月变化特征，但总指数（TT）和强天气威胁指数（SWEAT）作为预报判据时其月变化并不明显，4月和9月大多数冰雹天气发生在“低能强切变”条件下，7月和8月则多发生在“中高能弱切变”条件下。此外，不同月份HWBZ平均比干球0℃层高度（HDBZ）偏低0.4～0.9 km，除了7月和8月极少数冰雹HWBZ位于4.0～4.2 km范围，其余冰雹天气过程均发生在低于3.9 km的环境条件下，5月和9月均低于3.5 km。高空冷涡型、西北气流型环境物理量阈值差异并不显著，但两者与西来槽型阈值差异明显。高空冷涡型、西北气流型冰雹通常发生在SHR>12 m·s-1、HWBZ<3.6 km、TPW>27 kg·m-2的环境条件下，西来槽型冰雹多发生在SHR>9 m·s-1、HWBZ<3.9 km、TPW>36 kg·m-2的环境条件下。冰雹大小与HWBZ、SHR关系密切，以6月为例，非大冰雹一般发生在HWBZ<3.9 km、SHR>9 m·s-1的环境条件下，而大冰雹则均发生在HWBZ<3.5 km、SHR>11 m·s-1的环境条件下。
中文关键词: 冰雹，湿球0℃层，垂直风切变
Abstract:Based on the NCEP FNL (1°×1°) global analysis data and surface meteorological observations, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the 70 hailstorms in Tianjin from 2009 to 2019 are statistically analyzed, and the fusion sounding data are constructed to calculate the environmental parameters for hailstorms. Additionally, the environmental conditions for hailstorms in different months, different circulation patterns and different sizes are compared, and the corresponding prediction indices are given. The results show that the hailstorm in Tianjin mainly occurs from April to September, especially the hail and big hail days in June account for 49.4% and 60.0%, and the probability of hail and big hail from 12:00 BT to 20:00 BT account for 74.8% and 100%, 〖JP2〗respectively. Besides, the environmental parameters for hailstorms, such as convective available potential energy (CAPE), lift index (LI) , vertical wind shear (SHR), wet bulb 0℃ layer height (HWBZ) and total precipitable water (TPW), have obvious monthly variations and they should be noted significantly as prediction indicators. In April and September, the hailstorms mostly occur in low CAPE and high SHR conditions, but in July and August, the hailstorms often occur in medium-high CAPE and low SHR conditions. Additionally, the average HWBZ is 0.4-0.9 km lower than dry bulb 0℃ layer height (HDBZ), except that a very small number of hail in July and August HWBZ is in the range of 4.0-4.2 km. The other hails always occur in HWBZ<3.9 km conditions. The environmental conditions of cold vortex pattern and northwest flow pattern are not significantly different, but they are obviously different from the western trough pattern. The hailstorms of〖JP2〗 cold vortex pattern and northwest flow pattern usually occur under SHR>12 m·s-1, HWBZ<3.6 km and TPW>27 kg·〖JP〗m-2, while hailstorms of the western trough pattern mostly occur under SHR>9 m·s-1, HWBZ<3.9 km and TPW>36 kg·m-2. As for the hail, it is closely related to HWBZ and SHR. Take June as example. Small hails generally occur under HWBZ<3.9 km and SHR>9 m·s-1, while big hails appear under HWBZ<3.5 km and SHR>11 m·s-1.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41575049）、中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2020-008）及天津市气象局气象预报预警创新团队共同资助
引用文本：
尉英华,花家嘉,王莹,卢焕珍,2023.近11年天津冰雹统计特征及对流参数指标分析[J].气象,49(2):213-223.
WEI Yinghua,HUA Jiajia,WANG Ying,LU Huanzhen,2023.Statistical Characteristics and Convection Indicators of Hailstorm over Tianjin in Recent 11 Years[J].Meteor Mon,49(2):213-223.
尉英华,花家嘉,王莹,卢焕珍,2023.近11年天津冰雹统计特征及对流参数指标分析[J].气象,49(2):213-223.
WEI Yinghua,HUA Jiajia,WANG Ying,LU Huanzhen,2023.Statistical Characteristics and Convection Indicators of Hailstorm over Tianjin in Recent 11 Years[J].Meteor Mon,49(2):213-223.
