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气象:2022,48(9):1116-1129
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2020年夏季重庆降水异常偏多成因分析
唐红玉,吴遥,董新宁,何慧根,魏麟骁,张驰
(重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147)
Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Abnormally More Rainfall in Chongqing in Summer 2020
TANG Hongyu,WU Yao,DONG Xinning,HE Huigen,WEI Lingxiao,ZHANG Chi
(Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147)
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投稿时间:2021-09-23    修订日期:2022-04-19
中文摘要: 2020年夏季,重庆降水量为1961年以来同期第三多,6—7月为同期最多,极为异常。利用1961—2020年夏季重庆34个气象台站逐日降水和NCEP/NCAR逐日高度场、风场、相对湿度场等再分析资料及NOAA逐月海温场资料,采用相关、合成等现代统计诊断方法,分析了2020年重庆地区夏季降水出现异常偏多的主要原因。结果表明:2020年夏季,尤其是夏季6—7月,欧亚地区大气环流高低纬度呈“+-+”环流型分布,环流的经向度明显,出现重庆夏季典型多雨的第一型环流配置,从而造成夏季降水的异常偏多。外强迫信号分析表明:2019年秋冬季至2020春季ENSO暖事件使重庆夏季降水偏多的确定性概率增加,同时2019年秋季赤道印度洋偶极子正异常助推了2020年重庆夏季降水的异常偏多,两事件同时发生时其作用相互叠加,造成了重庆夏季降水的极端异常偏多。影响重庆夏季降水异常的主要外强迫信号包括ENSO和印度洋偶极子,提前监测和关注它们对重庆夏季降水预测意义重大。
Abstract:In the summer of 2020, Chongqing experienced the third most precipitation amount in the same period since 1961 and the maximum in the same period in June-July, so it was extremely anomalous. In this paper, we investigate the main causes for the abnormal summer precipitation in Chongqing in 2020 by using daily precipitation from 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing and daily geopotential height, wind, relative humidity and other reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR as well as monthly sea surface temperature (SST) from NOAA during the summer of 1961-2020. We adopt the modern statistical diagnostic methods such as correlation and synthesis for the analysis. The results show that in summer 2020, especially in June-July, the atmospheric circulation in the high and low latitudes over the Eurasian region showed the “+ - +” circulation type distribution, and the longitude of the circulation was obvious. The first type of circulation configuration with typical rainy summer in Chongqing appeared, thus causing the abnormally more precipitation in summer 2020. The analysis of the external forcing signal indicates that the positive ENSO event from autumn-winter 2019 to spring 2020 made the certainty probability of Chongqing’s summer precipitation increase. At the same time, the positive equatorial Indian Ocean dipole anomaly in autumn 2019 contributed to the anomalous increase of Chongqing’s summer precipitation in 2020. The effects of the two events were superimposed on each other when they occurred simultaneously, causing the extreme anomalous increase of Chongqing’s summer precipitation. ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole were the important precursor signals affecting Chongqing summer precipitation anomaly, so paying attention to these two signals in advance could provide meaningful references for Chongqing summer precipitation prediction.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41875111)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z011和CXFZ2021Z033)、中国气象局西南区域气象中心重大科研业务项目(西南区域2014-1)、重庆市气象局智慧气象技术创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-201908)和重庆市气象局业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202208)共同资助
引用文本:
唐红玉,吴遥,董新宁,何慧根,魏麟骁,张驰,2022.2020年夏季重庆降水异常偏多成因分析[J].气象,48(9):1116-1129.
TANG Hongyu,WU Yao,DONG Xinning,HE Huigen,WEI Lingxiao,ZHANG Chi,2022.Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Abnormally More Rainfall in Chongqing in Summer 2020[J].Meteor Mon,48(9):1116-1129.