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气象:2022,48(6):705-718
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造成北京春季气温预报失误的持续性低云过程分析
秦庆昌,于波,徐路扬,纪彬,王媛媛,张琳娜
(北京市气象台,北京 100091)
Analysis of a Continuous Low-Cloud Process Causing Spring Temperature Forecast Errors in Beijing
QIN Qingchang,YU Bo,XU Luyang,JI Bin,WANG Yuanyuan,ZHANG Linna
(Beijing Weather Forecast Centre, Beijing 100091)
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投稿时间:2021-08-10    修订日期:2022-03-07
中文摘要: 2021年3月2—4日北京地区受持续性的低云影响,导致气温预报出现较大偏差,全球数值模式、区域数值模式及预报员均未预报出此次低云天气过程。利用常规气象观测资料、ERA5再分析资料、风云四号A星(FY-4A)高分辨率可见光云图及激光云高仪和毫米波云雷达等新型探测资料,对低云的形成和维持机制进行探讨。研究结果表明:此次低云过程是在前期降水过后无明显冷空气影响、近地面湿度未得到很好的清除这一有利背景下,配合稳定的大气层结、弱上升运动和地形因素的共同作用下得以维持和发展。925 hPa暖平流发展和风速增强破坏了稳定层结,使得边界层内混合加强,进而导致低云消散。利用激光云高仪和毫米波云雷达可分别获取云底高度和云体结构的精细信息,可作为常规观测的有益补充。
Abstract:During 2-4 March 2021, a continuous low-cloud process in Beijing caused large deviation of temperature forecast. Both the global/regional numerical models and the forecasters failed to predict this process. Using the conventional meteorological data, ERA5 reanalysis data and FY-4A high-resolution visible cloud images, combined with the data of ceilometer and cloud radar, this paper discusses the formation and maintenance mechanism of the low cloud. The results are as follows. The favorable background for the formation of the low cloud was that there was no influence of obvious cold air after precipitation and the ground humidity was not well removed in the boundary layer. Meantime, the low cloud developed and maintained with stable atmospheric stratification, weak ascending motion and topographic effect. The warm advection and the growth of wind speed at 925 hPa destroyed the stable stratification, leading to the enhancement of mixing activity in the boundary layer and thus the dissipation of the low clouds. Detailed information of the cloud base height and cloud structure can be obtained via the ceilometer and cloud radar, which can be served as a useful complement to conventional observation.
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基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J013)、北京市科技计划项目(Z201100008220002、Z201100008220005、Z201100005820002)和北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ202001002)共同资助
引用文本:
秦庆昌,于波,徐路扬,纪彬,王媛媛,张琳娜,2022.造成北京春季气温预报失误的持续性低云过程分析[J].气象,48(6):705-718.
QIN Qingchang,YU Bo,XU Luyang,JI Bin,WANG Yuanyuan,ZHANG Linna,2022.Analysis of a Continuous Low-Cloud Process Causing Spring Temperature Forecast Errors in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,48(6):705-718.