###
气象:2022,48(2):203-215
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
黔西山区小槽触发类雹暴的诊断方法研究
向淑君,周筠珺,邹书平,杨哲,曾勇
(成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都 610225; 贵州省气候中心,贵阳 550002; 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044; 贵州省人工影响天气办公室,贵阳 550081)
Diagnostic Method Analysis of Hailstorm Triggered by Low-Trough in Western Guizhou Mountain Area
XIANG Shujun,ZHOU Yunjun,ZOU Shuping,YANG Zhe,ZENG Yong
(School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225; Guizhou Climate Centre, Guiyang 550002; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044; Weather Modification Office of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550081)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 213次   下载 1577
投稿时间:2020-11-17    修订日期:2021-09-13
中文摘要: 利用探空资料、美国国家环境预报中心0.5°×0.5°逐6小时再分析资料、X波段双偏振雷达观测资料对小槽触发的雹暴过程进行诊断分析。针对其发生发展特征,提炼出具有代表性的预报指标阈值构建针对小槽触发的雹暴诊断方法。利用此方法对雹暴多发地黔西山区,小槽触发下3次雹暴过程进行诊断分析,验证诊断方法对各类小槽触发的雹暴过程的预报效果。结果表明:根据多个个例降雹前的环境条件特征,选取湿热力垂直螺旋度大于0.8×10-3 Pa·m3·K·kg-1·s-2和水汽垂直螺旋度大于0.8×10-5 kg-1·m3·Pa·s-2作为指标阈值,在雹暴发展初期可诊断出个例的降雹潜势;针对强风切变、单体合并过程将促进强雹暴发展的特性,利用热力切变平流参数绝对值大于3×10-8 K·Pa-1·s-1的大值中心区域与降雹地的对应关系和45 dBz回波顶高与0℃高度关系阈值,可诊断雹暴单体发展成强雹暴的可能性;利用以上方法对3个降雹过程诊断检验时,此方法能系统全面地诊断出降雹潜势和强雹暴过程。
Abstract:This paper uses sounding data, NCEP reanalysis data and observation data of X-band dual-polarization radar to analyze the hailstorms triggered by small troughs. According to the features of occurrence and development and the predictive indexes with good indicative significance to the hailstorm triggered by small trough, a diagnosis method is constructed. By the method, three hailstorms with different intensities triggered by small trough are diagnosed, and the prediction effects are verified. The results indicate that the hailstorm potential of individual cases can be diagnosed effectively by the thresholds of the vertical helicity of humid heat force greater than 0.8×10-3 Pa·m3·K·kg-1·s-2 and the vertical helicity of water vapor greater than 0.8×10-5 kg-1·m3·Pa·s-2 in the initial stage of hailstone development. Strong wind shear and cell merging processes promote the occurrence and development of hailstorm. In view of this feature, the probability of hailstorm cell developing into severe hailstorm can be diagnosed by using the correspondence between the large value center with the absolute value of thermo shear advection parameter greater than 3×10-8 K·Pa-1·s-1 and the threshold value of the relation between 45 dBz echo top height and 0℃ height. Finally, it is verified that this method can diagnose the hailfall potential and severe hailstorm process comprehensively.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41875169)、第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0104)、国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505702)、贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2019]2387号)和四川省教育厅项目(16CZ0021)共同资助
引用文本:
向淑君,周筠珺,邹书平,杨哲,曾勇,2022.黔西山区小槽触发类雹暴的诊断方法研究[J].气象,48(2):203-215.
XIANG Shujun,ZHOU Yunjun,ZOU Shuping,YANG Zhe,ZENG Yong,2022.Diagnostic Method Analysis of Hailstorm Triggered by Low-Trough in Western Guizhou Mountain Area[J].Meteor Mon,48(2):203-215.