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气象:2022,48(2):162-176
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复杂地形下高精度风场融合预报订正技术在冬奥会赛区风速预报中的应用研究
杨璐,宋林烨,荆浩,陈明轩,曹伟华,吴剑坤
(北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089; 北京市气象台,北京 100089)
Fusion Prediction and Correction Technique for High-Resolution Wind Field in Winter Olympic Games Area Under Complex Terrain
YANG Lu,SONG Linye,JING Hao,CHEN Mingxuan,CAO Weihua,WU Jiankun
(Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089; Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2021-01-15    修订日期:2021-09-29
中文摘要: 几乎所有的数值预报模式都存在系统偏差。虽然目前利用统计订正方法降低个别站点的风速偏差已经取得了一些成功,但基于站点的订正具有空间局限性,仍迫切需要基于格点开展复杂地形下高精度风场的融合预报偏差订正。本研究提出了一种复杂地形下北京冬奥赛区不同海拔高度高精度风场的融合预报订正技术。首先利用冬奥山地赛区及周边133个自动气象站风场实况观测资料与睿图-睿思系统高精度风场预报数据相结合,利用统计偏差订正方法,获取各站点1~12 h的平均系统偏差,然后再将地形降尺度后的中国气象局北京快速更新循环数值预报系统高分辨率风场利用格点偏差订正系数优化后作为背景场融合观测资料,更好地捕捉局地地形对山区风场的影响。结果表明,本方法极大程度降低了风速的系统性偏差,风速预报误差显著降低,12 h风速平均绝对误差和均方根误差降低率最高达40%以上。经过适当的修改,这种方法也可以应用于对其他变量的偏差订正上。
Abstract:Almost all numerical prediction models have systematic errors. Although the statistical correction method has achieved some success in reducing the wind speed deviation at individual stations, it is still urgent to develop a high-resolution wind forecast bias correction method under complex terrain based on grid points. In this study, a fusion prediction and correction technique for high-resolution wind field at different altitudes in Winter Olympic Games area under complex terrain is proposed. Firstly, the statistical bias correction method is used to obtain the 1-12 h average systematic deviation of wind at each station by using the wind observation data of 133 automatic weather stations in the Winter Olympic Mountain Competition area and the high-resolution wind forecast data of RMAPS-RISE system. Then the wind of CMA-BJ model is modified by downscaling and optimized by the grid deviation correction coefficient. Finally, the optimized high-resolution wind is modified by incorporating the latest surface observational data. The results show that this method greatly reduces the systematic deviation of wind speed and the average absolute error of wind speed forecast. The reduction rate of the average absolute error and root mean square error of wind speed within 12 hours is more than 40%. With appropriate modification, this method can also be applied to the bias correction of other variables.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0300102)、北京自然科学基金项目(8212025、ZZH20081)共同资助
引用文本:
杨璐,宋林烨,荆浩,陈明轩,曹伟华,吴剑坤,2022.复杂地形下高精度风场融合预报订正技术在冬奥会赛区风速预报中的应用研究[J].气象,48(2):162-176.
YANG Lu,SONG Linye,JING Hao,CHEN Mingxuan,CAO Weihua,WU Jiankun,2022.Fusion Prediction and Correction Technique for High-Resolution Wind Field in Winter Olympic Games Area Under Complex Terrain[J].Meteor Mon,48(2):162-176.