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投稿时间：2020-12-28 修订日期：2021-05-25
投稿时间：2020-12-28 修订日期：2021-05-25
中文摘要: 春季二球悬铃木（以下简称悬铃木）新生花粉和宿存球果脱落产生的果毛，既危害人体健康也为城市清洁带来压力，开展始花期预报有利于易敏人群提前做好防护准备，并可为园林部门适时喷洒植物生长抑制剂提供理论依据。以江苏兴化悬铃木始花期为研究对象，选取1990—2020年的物候观测数据和同期气象观测资料，分析其年际变化趋势，筛选影响始花期的关键气象因子，采用通径分析法进一步明确各关键气象因子对始花期的定量影响，并建立多元回归预报模型；同时统计分析始花期有效积温阈值，基于春季积温模型进行预报，并对比检验两种模型的预报效果。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下兴化悬铃木始花期呈提前趋势，每10年提前约2 d；光照、风速和降水对开花早晚影响较小，但2月下旬雨水充沛、空气湿润则有利于开花提前；温度是影响开花早晚的最重要指标，冬季日最高气温对始花期的影响程度高于日最低气温，平均地表温度的影响程度略高于平均气温，但到了3月气温回暖后则反之；冬季平均地表温度、冬季平均气温以及3月中旬日最低气温<10℃的天数在直接、间接效应方面均对始花期具有最大的影响力，在此基础上建立的逐步回归预报模型拟合准确率达89.3%，具有较高的可靠性和业务应用价值。
中文关键词: 二球悬铃木，始花期，通径分析，气象因子
Abstract:In April, the pollen and flying fruit hair from Platanus acerifolia endanger human health and bring pressure to city cleaning. The prediction of the first flowering date （FFD) is conducive to the protection of allergy groups, and can provide theoretical basis for the timely spraying of plant growth inhibitor by the garden department. Taking the FFD of Platanus acerifolia in Xinghua, Jiangsu Province as the research object, this paper analyzes the annual variation trend from 1990 to 2020 and selects the leading meteorological factors which are significantly related to the FFD by using the observation data and synchronous meteorological date. Moreover, the effect of the leading meteorological factors is quantitatively specified by path analysis and the regression prediction model is constructed. In addition， the effective accumulated temperature threshold is statistically analyzed， and the prediction is made based on the SW accumulative temperature model. Finally， the prediction effects of the two models are evaluated. The results show that under the background of climate warming, the FFD shows a tendency of advancing year by year, about 2 days every 10 years. Light, wind speed and precipitation have little impact on the FFD, but in late February, plenty of rain and moist air are conducive to early flowering. Temperature is the main impact factor. The impact of daily maximum temperature on the FFD is higher than that of daily minimum temperature, and the impact of average surface temperature is higher than that of average temperature. However, the situation is opposite when temperature begins to warm up from March. The average winter surface temperature, the average winter air temperature and the number of days in mid March with daily minimum air temperature <10℃ all have the significant impact on the FFD directly or indirectly. The fitting result of the regression prediction model which is established based on these factors is 89.3%. Therefore, this prediction model has high reliability and operational application value.
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基金项目:江苏省气象局科研面上项目（KM201906、KM202009）和国家重点研发计划（2019YFD1002201）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 孙明 | 江苏省气象服务中心，南京 210008 |
| 徐敏 | 江苏省气候中心，南京 210008 |
| 高苹 | 江苏省气候中心，南京 210008 |
| 艾文文 | 江苏省气象服务中心，南京 210008 |
| 张志薇 | 江苏省气象科学研究所，南京 210009 |
引用文本：
孙明,徐敏,高苹,艾文文,张志薇,2021.气象条件对悬铃木始花期的影响分析及预报模型构建——以江苏兴化为例[J].气象,47(7):862-871.
SUN Ming,XU Min,GAO Ping,AI Wenwen,ZHANG Zhiwei,2021.Analysis of Meteorological Affecting Factors and Construction of Prediction Model for First Flowing Date of Platanus Acerifolia： A Case Study Based on the Situation in Xinghua， Jiangsu Province[J].Meteor Mon,47(7):862-871.
孙明,徐敏,高苹,艾文文,张志薇,2021.气象条件对悬铃木始花期的影响分析及预报模型构建——以江苏兴化为例[J].气象,47(7):862-871.
SUN Ming,XU Min,GAO Ping,AI Wenwen,ZHANG Zhiwei,2021.Analysis of Meteorological Affecting Factors and Construction of Prediction Model for First Flowing Date of Platanus Acerifolia： A Case Study Based on the Situation in Xinghua， Jiangsu Province[J].Meteor Mon,47(7):862-871.
