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气象:2020,46(8):1039-1052
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华南暖区暴雨预报失误及可预报性探讨
覃武,刘国忠,赖珍权,覃月凤,梁依玲
(广西壮族自治区气象局,南宁 530022; 广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁 530022)
Study on Forecast Errors and Predictability of a Warm-Sector Rainstorm in South China
QIN Wu,LIU Guozhong,LAI Zhenquan,QIN Yuefeng,LIANG Yiling
(Guangxi Meteorological Service, Nanning 530022; Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022)
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投稿时间:2019-12-29    修订日期:2020-06-09
中文摘要: 由于暖区暴雨产生的环境条件复杂和触发机制难以捕捉,数值模式对其预报能力弱,给预报带来困难,经常导致预报失误,是短期预报中的难点。2016年4月19—20日广西出现了一场暖区暴雨天气过程,预报员及数值模式预报出现较大失误。利用业务预报中的数值预报产品、地面中尺度自动气象站观测、常规地面及高空观测、新一代天气雷达及FY-2G卫星探测等资料对此次暖区暴雨预报失误进行剖析。结果表明:中低空急流增强及西南暖低压发展,为越南北部至广西中南部提供了高温、高湿、高能的环境条件,地形性辐合及涡旋触发了对流的发生,中尺度辐合线有效组织了对流的发展,雷达回波具有质心低、降雨效率高等暖云降雨的特征。预报员和数值模式短期时效内对暖区暴雨缺乏预报能力,未能准确把握可触发对流的机制,是预报失败的原因。预报员通过分析上游地区对流云团、地面中尺度辐合线演变及地形作用等触发条件,可以在短时临近时效内对暖区暴雨部分做出定性预报,发布预警信息,弥补短期预报的不足。因此,加强对暖区暴雨形成机理的认识,在预报中做好精细分析,是提高暖区暴雨预报能力的有效途径之一。
Abstract:For warm-sector rainstorms, forecast errors often appear in the short-term forecast due to the complexity of environmental conditions, the difficulty in capturing the trigger mechanisms and the poor prediction ability of the numerical models. From 19 to 20 April 2016, a warm-sector rainstorm event occurred in Guangxi, China, but forecasters and numerical models both failed to forecast the rainfall intensity. Based on numerical forecast products, observation data of automatic weather stations, conventional surface and upper-air observation data, Doppler radar and FY-2G data, the forecast errors of this heavy rainfall event were analyzed. The results show that the development of the low- and mid-level jet and the southwest warm low pressure provided the environment with high temperature, high humidity and high energy in the area between the northern part Vietnam and the central and southern part of Guangxi, the topographic convergence and vortex triggered the convection and the mesoscale convergence lines effectively organized the convection. In addition, radar echoes were characterized by low centroid and high rainfall efficiency. The reasons for the failure are that forecasters and numerical models lacked the forecasting ability of the short-term warm-sector rainstorms, and could not accurately grasp the trigger mechanism of the convection. By analyzing the convective cloud clusters in the upstream zone, the evolution of the surface mesoscale convergence lines and the topographic effects and other trigger conditions, forecasters could have made qualitative nowcasting of warm-sector rainstorms and issued early warnings to make up for the ability shortage of short-term forecasting. Therefore, strengthening the understanding of the mechanism of warm-sector rainstorms and making fine analysis are effective ways to improve the forecast ability.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502501)、广西壮族自治区气象局重点项目(桂气科2017Z01)和广西智能网格预报服务创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
覃武,刘国忠,赖珍权,覃月凤,梁依玲,2020.华南暖区暴雨预报失误及可预报性探讨[J].气象,46(8):1039-1052.
QIN Wu,LIU Guozhong,LAI Zhenquan,QIN Yuefeng,LIANG Yiling,2020.Study on Forecast Errors and Predictability of a Warm-Sector Rainstorm in South China[J].Meteor Mon,46(8):1039-1052.