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气象:2020,46(5):716-724
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北京道面温度特征分析和统计预报研究
董颜,郭文利,闵晶晶,李乃杰,张丰瑶
(北京市气象服务中心,北京 100089)
Characteristics of Road Surface Temperature in Beijing and Its Statistic Forecasting Model
DONG Yan,GUO Wenli,MIN Jingjing,LI Naijie,ZHANG Fengyao
(Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2019-01-07    修订日期:2020-03-12
中文摘要: 分析了北京市道面温度在冬季和夏季不同天气状况下的日变化,利用2012—2015年的道面站温度与北京区域模式输出的气象要素之间的相关关系,以5个道面站为代表站筛选不同相关因子建立多个道面冬季最低温度和夏季最高温度的线性回归统计预测模型,并对2016—2017年冬季、夏季道面温度预测检验。结果表明:在不同天气条件下道面温度与气温变化对比明显;道面温度与气温、辐射、日照时数相关较大;夏季按天气类型建模预测准确度有所提升,在晴到多云状况下,模型预测冬季最低温度误差控制在±2℃内,夏季最高温度误差控制在±3℃左右,其他天气状况下误差增大,冬季预测模型好于夏季预测模型。
Abstract:This article analyzes the diurnal variation of road surface temperature in the different weather conditions for winter and summer in Beijing. Based on the 2012-2015 data of the road stations and the corresponding forecasting model outputs, the multiple linear regression statistical forecasting models 〖JP2〗are built to predict the road mini 〖JP〗mum temperature in winter and the maximum temperature in summer with the different correlative factors from the selected 5 representative road stations. Then the best forecasting model is chosen to make an assessment for winters and summers from 2016 to 2017. The results show that there exists a significant diurnal variation for the road surface temperature, suggesting that the road surface temperature is obviously different under different kinds of weather conditions.〖JP〗 The road surface temperature is correlated to air temperature, atmospheric radiation and sunshine duration. In addition, the prediction accuracy of summer forecasting models for the various weather conditions is improved. Under the fair to cloudy condition, the errors of forecasting models could be controlled within the ± 2℃ in winter and ±3℃ in summer, but it is worse under the other weather conditions. The models show a better performence in terms of the minimum temperature forecast in winter compared to the maximum temperature forecast in summer.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0300105)和北京市科技计划项目(D171100000717002)共同资助
引用文本:
董颜,郭文利,闵晶晶,李乃杰,张丰瑶,2020.北京道面温度特征分析和统计预报研究[J].气象,46(5):716-724.
DONG Yan,GUO Wenli,MIN Jingjing,LI Naijie,ZHANG Fengyao,2020.Characteristics of Road Surface Temperature in Beijing and Its Statistic Forecasting Model[J].Meteor Mon,46(5):716-724.