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气象:2020,46(4):517-527
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热带气旋过台湾后再次登陆的路径强度变化统计分析
邢蕊,徐晶,林瀚
(天津市滨海新区气象局,天津 300450; 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081; 南京信息工程大学,南京 210044)
Statistical Analysis of Track and Intensity Variations of Tropical Cyclone Landing Mainland After Passing Through Taiwan
XING Rui,XU Jing,LIN Han
(Meteorological Office of Tianjin Binhai New Area, Tianjin 300450; State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2019-01-01    修订日期:2019-10-14
中文摘要: 登陆台湾后再次登陆大陆的热带气旋(TC)由于受复杂下垫面及中低纬天气系统的共同影响,过岛后在海峡内的路径、强度及结构变化复杂,导致登陆大陆的精确化定位、定强及预报难度大。分析了1949—2017年二次登陆的81个热带气旋路径及强度变化特征,并对上海台风所(CMA/STI)、美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)及东京区域台风中心(RSMC-Tokyo)的热带气旋最佳路径数据中过岛热带气旋的定位定强进行对比分析。结果表明:二次登陆大陆热带气旋强度以减弱为主,少数热带气旋在海峡内增强;过岛后热带气旋路径多数会发生明显偏折,但三家最佳路径资料判断的偏折趋势不一致;由于热带气旋过岛时结构遭到破坏,定位定强难度增大,导致三个业务中心对其定位定强的差异较大,这种不确定性增大了其路径和强度监测预报的难度。
Abstract:The track, intensity and structure of the tropical cyclone (TC) in Taiwan Strait become more complex because of the complicated underlying surface and the influence of the middle and low latitude weather system after TC crossing Taiwan. Thus, it is difficult to forecast the precise position and intensity of TC landing mainland. In this paper, the track and intensity variation characteristics of 81 TCs landing Taiwan and mainland from 1949 to 2017 were analyzed, and the TC positions and intensities in the best track datasets 〖JP2〗of Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA/STI), American Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)〖JP〗 and Tokyo Regional Typhoon Center (RSMC-Tokyo) were compared and analyzed. The results show that most of the TCs weakened except that a few strengthened in the strait. The track deflections are obtained in most TCs in strait, compared with tracks of TC before landing Taiwan Island, but the deflection orientations are different in the three best track datasets. It is more difficult to determine the TC center and intensity because the TC structure is broken down when passing through Taiwan Island. As a result, TC center and intensity records are very different in the three best track datasets. The position and intensity uncertainties of TC increase the difficulty in monitoring and forecasting TC track and intensity.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41675044)、天津市自然科学基金项目(19JCYBJC23700)和天津市气象局博士基金项目(201735bsjj01)共同资助
引用文本:
邢蕊,徐晶,林瀚,2020.热带气旋过台湾后再次登陆的路径强度变化统计分析[J].气象,46(4):517-527.
XING Rui,XU Jing,LIN Han,2020.Statistical Analysis of Track and Intensity Variations of Tropical Cyclone Landing Mainland After Passing Through Taiwan[J].Meteor Mon,46(4):517-527.