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气象:2020,46(3):313-324
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一次玉林地区漏报的强双雨带影响的过程分析
林宝亭,陆秋霖,林确略,陈明璐,苏尉宣
(广西玉林市气象局,玉林 537000)
Process Analysis of a Missing-Forecast Severe Double Rain Belt in Yulin
LIN Baoting,LU Qiulin,LIN Quelüe,CHEN Minglu,SU Weixuan
(Yulin Meteorological Office of Guangxi, Yulin 537000)
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投稿时间:2018-09-04    修订日期:2019-08-20
中文摘要: 暖区暴雨一直是业务预报难点,而双雨带中的暖区暴雨预报更是难以把握。2016年4月19日20时至20日20时出现了一次很强的双雨带过程,业务值班漏报了其对玉林地区的影响(漏报玉林南雨带的暴雨、大暴雨量级)。通过对数值预报产品、NCEP 1°×1°全球客观分析资料、常规气象资料、雷达资料等进行剖析,找出漏报的原因,结果如下:预报的500 hPa槽距本地较远、925 hPa辐合线不明显、雨量偏小,导致漏报玉林南雨带的暴雨、大暴雨量级;忽略了与冷温槽相配合的冷平流使高空槽加深的作用;上下游台站都误认为冷空气已入海,忽略了高压脊后部地面回流形势对玉林的影响;没有仔细分析暴雨前CAPE值,忽略了玉林周围已具备“上干下湿”的有利降水条件,易触发暴雨;边界层能量锋的锋生利于对流不稳定气团的抬升;低空急流为南雨带提供了源源不断的水汽输送,水汽通量大值区和水汽辐合区都集中在玉林,水汽补给充足,导致玉林普降暴雨。
Abstract:The warm area rainstorm has always been a difficult point in operational forecasting, and forecasting the rainstorm in the double rain belt is even more difficult. There was a severe double belt rainstorm from 20:00 BT 19 to 20:00 BT 20 April 2016, which was missing in forecasting. In order to provide lessons for future forecasts, based on the numerical forecast products, NCEP 1°×1 ° global objective analysis data, conventional meteorological data, the severe double rain belt were analyzed. The results are as follows. The predicted 500 hPa trough was far from Yulin, the convergence line at 925 hPa was not obvious, and the rainfall was small. The effect of cooling trough in front of the south branch trough was neglected. The cold air was misjudged into the sea, and the effect of backflow on Yulin was ignored. The CAPE value was not analyzed in detail and it was not found that before the rainstorm Yulin had favorable dynamic conditions for “dry and wet”, which was easy to trigger rainstorm. The energy frontogenesis contributed to the rise of convective instability. The low level jet provided a continuous flow of water vapor for the south rain belt and the large area of water vapor flux and the convergence area of water vapor are concentrated in Yulin, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of rainstorms.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41765002)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY 2018 055)、广西自然科学基金重点项目(2017GXNSFDA198030)和广西气象局面上项目(桂气科2019M17)共同资助
引用文本:
林宝亭,陆秋霖,林确略,陈明璐,苏尉宣,2020.一次玉林地区漏报的强双雨带影响的过程分析[J].气象,46(3):313-324.
LIN Baoting,LU Qiulin,LIN Quelüe,CHEN Minglu,SU Weixuan,2020.Process Analysis of a Missing-Forecast Severe Double Rain Belt in Yulin[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):313-324.