###
气象:2020,46(1):80-88
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
辽宁地区大气可降水量与降水关系的研究
秦鑫,赵姝慧,马嘉理,孙丽,刘旸,房彬
(辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,沈阳 110166)
Relationship Between Atmospheric Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitaton in Liaoning Province
QIN Xin,ZHAO Shuhui,MA Jiali,SUN Li,LIU Yang,FANG Bin
(Liaoning Weather Modification Office, Shenyang 110166)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 650次   下载 480
投稿时间:2019-01-22    修订日期:2019-10-14
中文摘要: 当大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)达到某一阈值时将出现降水,则该值称为PWV降水阈值(threshold of PWV,PWVt),由此认为PWVt可以作为PWV与降水关系研究的纽带。为了能够较为准确地计算出PWVt,引入整层大气饱和可降水量(precipitable water vapor saturation, PWVsat)概念,并推导出多元大气条件下PWVsat计算公式,根据公式可知PWVsat是地面温度(ts)的函数,其表示整层大气在饱和状态下容纳的最大水汽量。大气必须达到一定层次的饱和才能成云致雨,因此推断ts也可能影响着PWVt。为了验证该推断的准确性,利用2015年5月至2016年10月辽宁地区36个观测站的PWV与ts进行研究,将筛选出1122个降水样本的PWVt与ts进行拟合,发现PWVt拟合公式与PWVsat推导公式较为一致,说明PWVt和PWVsat两者密切相关,同时给出36个站的拟合参数,从而建立PWV与降水的对应关系。统计检验表明,该方法在降水预报中的准确率、漏报率和空报率分别为93.69%、2.32%和3.99%,说明PWVt在降水预报方面具有一定的应用价值。最后在一次降水个例中应用,结果显示PWVt可以较好地预报降水,并发现PWV与PWVt的差值与降水量具有一定的对应关系。
Abstract:Precipitation is likely to take place as precipitable water vapor (PWV) of the atmosphere reaches a certain value. Thus, the threshold of PWV (PWVt), which can be regarded as the research bridge between PWV and precipitation. In the aim of calculating PWVt precisely, this paper has brought in “precipitable water vapor saturation (PWVsat)” of the atmosphere and deduced the computing formula of PWVsat under various atmosphere conditions. From the formula, it is shown that PWVsat is a function of surface temperature (ts), which indicates the maximum water vapor that a bottom-up saturated atmosphere is capable to hold. The atmosphere needs to be wet enough to form clouds and rains. Therefore, it is inferred that ts is a factor in PWVt. To prove that, PWVt and ts of 36 gauge stations ranging from May 2015 to October 2016 are studied and 1122 precipitation cases are selected and fitted. The results show that the fitting formula of PWVt and computing formula of PWVsat are highly alike, proving the 2 variables are closely correlated. Meanwhile, fitting parameters of each of 36 stations are given for relating PWV to precipitation. This method has gone through statistical examination to find that its accuracy rate, missing rate and vacancy rate to be 93.69%, 2.32% and 3.99% respectively in precipitation prediction, which denotes a sound application value in predicting rainfall. Finally, the method is applied in a rainfall case to show that PWVt can predict precipitation well, and the difference between PWV and PWVt is correlated to precipitation amount.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41705127)和辽宁省气象局科研项目(201608)共同资助
引用文本:
秦鑫,赵姝慧,马嘉理,孙丽,刘旸,房彬,2020.辽宁地区大气可降水量与降水关系的研究[J].气象,46(1):80-88.
QIN Xin,ZHAO Shuhui,MA Jiali,SUN Li,LIU Yang,FANG Bin,2020.Relationship Between Atmospheric Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitaton in Liaoning Province[J].Meteor Mon,46(1):80-88.