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气象:2019,45(8):1065-1074
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SMS-WARMS V2.0模式对中国西南地区降水预报能力的客观检验
徐同,杨玉华,李佳,陈葆德
(中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030; 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海 200030; 上海区域高分辨率数值预报创新中心,上海 200030)
An Objective Verification of Forecasting Ability of SMS-WARMS V2.0 Model Precipitation in Southwest China
XU Tong,YANG Yuhua,LI Jia,CHEN Baode
(Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030; Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030; Shanghai Innovative Center of Regional High-Resolution NWP, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2017-09-07    修订日期:2019-06-05
中文摘要: 本文采用标准降水检验方法、EDI方法和MODE方法对新一代上海区域中尺度模式SMS-WARMS V2.0模式2015年12月至2016年11月的西南地区降水预报效果进行评估。结果表明:(1)模式对西南地区四季的降水TS评分均较高,夏季和秋季相对更高,且在48 h内预报性能比较稳定。(2)预报偏差和TSS评分显示,模式对西南地区春、夏两季的各个量级降水预报均较实况偏多,而对秋季的大暴雨和冬季的大雨以上量级预报则相对偏少。总体而言,对西南地区的降水技巧呈现出预报成功率高于空报率的特征。(3)模式对西南地区的小雨、暴雨和大暴雨预报评分优于EC模式。(4)EDI检验显示模式对西南地区的极端降水有较高的预报技巧,对四川中部和东北部以及贵州西南部的极端降水预报技巧相对更高。(5)模式对2015年8月一次西南涡诱发的暴雨过程的空间落区预报较好,强度较实况偏强。(6)MODE方法统计结果表明,模式对西南地区暴雨预报的目标质心偏差较小,降水中心强度偏强。
Abstract:Standard precipitation verification method, extreme dependency index and method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) are applied in this paper to make evaluation of SMS-WARMS V2.0 precipitation in Southwest China from December 2015 to November 2016. The results show that (1) the treat scores of four seasons in Southwest are high, especially in spring and summer, and the performance is relatively stable within 48 h. (2) The results of frequency bias and true skill score show each magnitude precipitation in spring and summer forecasted by SMS-WARMS V2.0 in Southwest China is more than observation, but the model forecast to torrential rain in autumn and heavy rain in winter is relatively less. Overall, the forecast skill in Southwest China exhibits the features that the POD is higher than FAR. (3) The treat scores of light rain, torrential rain and downpour forecasted by SMS-WARMS V2.0 are higher than ECMWF model. (4) Model has a good performance in forecasting extreme precipitation in Southwest through extreme dependency index, especially better for central and northeastern Sichuan and southwestern Guizhou. (5) Precipitation area forecast of a rainstorm process caused by a southwest vortex in August 2015 performed well in space, but the intensity was stronger than observation. (6) Statistic results made by MODE show that the rainstorm object centroid has a small bias between forecast and observation, but the central intensity of precipitation is stronger than observation.
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基金项目:政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2016YFE0109700)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(41505087)和上海市气象局科技开发项目(MS201802)共同资助
引用文本:
徐同,杨玉华,李佳,陈葆德,2019.SMS-WARMS V2.0模式对中国西南地区降水预报能力的客观检验[J].气象,45(8):1065-1074.
XU Tong,YANG Yuhua,LI Jia,CHEN Baode,2019.An Objective Verification of Forecasting Ability of SMS-WARMS V2.0 Model Precipitation in Southwest China[J].Meteor Mon,45(8):1065-1074.