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气象:2018,44(11):1479-1488
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一种区域降水过程综合强度评估方法的探索和应用
王莉萍,王秀荣,张立生,张建忠,王维国
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Exploration and Application of Comprehensive Intensity Evaluation Method for Regional Precipitation Process
WANG Liping,WANG Xiurong,ZHANG Lisheng,ZHANG Jianzhong,WANG Weiguo
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-02-14    修订日期:2018-08-24
中文摘要: 降水过程强度精细化定量评估是气象现代化业务服务的重要需求,也是暴雨灾害影响评估研究的关键环节。利用1961年以来国家气象站降水气象观测资料,以站点降水背景表征地域特征,通过定义单站和区域降水过程的起始和结束条件界定降水过程,提取了降水强度、持续时间、覆盖范围三个降水过程的评价指标,在深度挖掘降水空间和时间尺度信息基础上,计算三个降水过程的评价指标。然后,基于百分位分布和概率统计,对降水过程三个评价指标进行精细化指数划分,建立降水过程综合强度评估模型。最终将降水过程划分为极端、特强、强、较强、中等五个等级。文中应用案例对评估方法进行验证,结果显示对单站和区域降水过程综合强度等级评估方法合理,既能体现降水过程地域特征,又能表征降水过程的影响程度,方法具可操作性,能够直接应用于气象服务业务和暴雨灾害影响评估,也可为历史降水过程案例入库、灾情信息演变特征分析提供依据。
Abstract:The refined quantitative evaluation of precipitation process intensity is one of the important requirements in the modernization of meteorological operational services and a key link in the rainstorm di saster impact assessment research. By using rainfall observation data from 2410 weather stations since 1961 and precipitation background at stations to represent the regional characteristics, the beginning and end conditions of a single station and regional precipitation process are defined, and three evaluation indexes of precipitation process are extracted, including rainfall intensity, duration and range. In addition, three evaluation indexes in the process of precipitation are calculated based on the spatio temporal precipitation data. Then, based on percentile distribution and probability statistics, the three evaluation indexes of precipitation process are subdivided and the comprehensive intensity evaluation model of precipitation process is established. Finally, the intensities of precipitation process are divided into five grades including extreme, extra severe, severe, heavy, medium grades. The results of validating the evaluation method show that single station and regional precipitation intensity grade evaluation method is reasonable. It can not only reflect geographical features, but also characterize the effect of the precipitation process. This method has strong the maneuverability, and can be directly applied to meteorological service operations and heavy rain impact assessment. It can also be used for the storage of historic precipitation process case, providing basis for the characteristics analysis of disaster information.
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基金项目:中国气象局决策气象服务专项和国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201720)共同资助
引用文本:
王莉萍,王秀荣,张立生,张建忠,王维国,2018.一种区域降水过程综合强度评估方法的探索和应用[J].气象,44(11):1479-1488.
WANG Liping,WANG Xiurong,ZHANG Lisheng,ZHANG Jianzhong,WANG Weiguo,2018.Exploration and Application of Comprehensive Intensity Evaluation Method for Regional Precipitation Process[J].Meteor Mon,44(11):1479-1488.