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气象:2018,44(11):1377-1390
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一种改进的飞机自然结冰潜势算法研究
李佰平,戴建华,孙敏,史月琴,孙俊颖,杨涛,黄可蔚,韩昌
(上海中心气象台,上海 200030; 中国气象科学研究院,中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京 100081; 中国商飞试飞中心,上海 200230; 中国飞行试验研究院,西安 710089; 四川航空股份有限公司,成都 601202; 上海市气象服务中心,上海 200030)
An Improved Aircraft Natural Icing Potential Algorithm
LI Baiping,DAI Jianhua,SUN Min,SHI Yueqin,SUN Junying,YANG Tao,HUANG Kewei,HAN Chang
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030; Weather Modification Center of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; Flight Test Center, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd., Shanghai 200230; Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Xian 710089; Sichuan Airlines Co., Ltd., Chengdu 601202; Shanghai Meteorological Service Centre, Shanghai 200030)
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本文已被:浏览 930次   下载 1164
投稿时间:2017-09-01    修订日期:2018-01-25
中文摘要: 飞机结冰严重危害飞行安全,随着国产大飞机计划的推进以及自然结冰试飞试验的开展,飞机结冰研究越来越引起了民航和气象等诸多部门的重视。本文介绍了一个改进的飞机自然结冰潜势算法,该算法直接基于大气温湿层结给出结冰潜势,可以识别多种天气条件下(包括冻雨)的飞机结冰可能,具有命中率高、虚警率低、应用简便、实用性强的特点。用26个飞机结冰试飞(飞行)报告对该算法进行了检验和评估,发现该算法能较好地估测多种天气条件下飞机在飞行中实际遭遇结冰的情况,且能给出结冰的区域和大致高度。同时,在安庆的一次飞机自然结冰外场试验中对该方法进行了应用,发现结合地面观测、探空秒数据和卫星资料等,该结冰潜势诊断方法可以准确诊断结冰层的高度和随时间的变化,与飞机实际空中探测具有较高的符合度。
Abstract:With the progress of China made large aircraft and natural icing flight test in recent years, aircraft icing which is dangerous for flight safety, catches more and more attentions from both aviation and meteorology sectors now. Based on atmospheric temperature and humidity stratification profile, an improved icing potential algorithm with high probability of detection (POD), low false alarms ratio (FAR), easy application and practicability, is introduced in this article. The algorithm is verified and evaluated against 26 flight test/pilot reports. It is found that the diagnosed icing potential has high accordance with aircraft observation, and can give the approximate icing height and area in multiple weather conditions. By combing surface observation, radiosonde and satellite data, the algorithm is also verified in an aircraft natural icing observation experiment in Anqing, and the result shows that the algorithm can diagnose the particular height of icing level as well as the production and consumption of supercooled water, which has high consistency with aircraft sounding.
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基金项目:上海市科委科研计划项目(16dz1206100)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018 025)及上海市气象局强对流科技创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
李佰平,戴建华,孙敏,史月琴,孙俊颖,杨涛,黄可蔚,韩昌,2018.一种改进的飞机自然结冰潜势算法研究[J].气象,44(11):1377-1390.
LI Baiping,DAI Jianhua,SUN Min,SHI Yueqin,SUN Junying,YANG Tao,HUANG Kewei,HAN Chang,2018.An Improved Aircraft Natural Icing Potential Algorithm[J].Meteor Mon,44(11):1377-1390.