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气象:2018,44(9):1179-1190
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华中区域空气质量数值预报系统评估及气溶胶辐射效应的模拟研究
刘琳,白永清,林春泽,杨浩
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉 430074)
Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China and Its Application for Aerosol Radiative Effect
LIU Lin,BAI Yongqing,LIN Chunze,YANG Hao
(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430074)
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投稿时间:2017-03-28    修订日期:2018-07-26
中文摘要: 基于多种检验指标对2015年6月至2016年2月华中区域空气质量数值预报系统的6种污染物(PM10,PM2.5,SO2,NO2,CO,O3)和AQI指数的预报结果进行检验评估,在确保模拟效果的基础上,通过敏感性试验研究区域气溶胶对地面气象要素的影响,结果表明:华中区域空气质量数值预报系统对湖北省6种污染物和AQI具有稳定且较好的预报效果。存在O3预报较实况偏高,预报误差较大的问题,后期将通过误差订正来减小误差。对比CUACE模式预报效果表明,24~48 h的预报效果区域模式优于CUACE,72 h两个模式预报效果相当。气溶胶对地面气象要素具有一定的影响,对2015年1月9—12日的模拟过程而言,气溶胶的总辐射效应使地表接收太阳辐射减少7.740 W·m-2,2 m气温降低0.162℃,行星边界层高度降低16.457 m,相对湿度增加0.557%,10 m风速减小0.011 m·s-1,其中直接效应和间接效应各有一部分贡献,气溶胶对白天地面气象要素的影响比夜间大。由于区域接受太阳辐射减小、气温降低、行星边界层高度降低、风速降低、湿度增加有利于气溶胶吸湿增长等条件不利于污染物扩散,污染物浓度不断累积升高又促使气象条件的上述变化,由此产生了气象条件与大气污染之间的双向反馈作用。
Abstract:Based on a variety of test indicators from June 2015 to February 2016, the six kinds of forecast pollutants (PM10,PM2.5,SO2,NO2,CO,O3) and the AQI index of Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China were verified. Then the impact of aerosol radiation effect on surface meteorological factors was studied by sensitivity experiments. The results show that the Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China has stable and good forecasting effect on the six pollutants and AQI in Hubei Province, but the forecast error of O3 is larger and forecast value is higher than the observation. The error could be reduced by the error correction in future. Compared with the CUACE forecasting model, the 24-48 h forecast is better than that of CUACE and the 72 h effect of the two models are similar. The aerosol radiation effect has affected the distribution of surface meteorological field to a certain extent. During this process, the total radiation effect of aerosols reduced the solar radiation by 7.740 W·m-2, 2 m temperature decreased by 0.162℃, plantary boundary layer height decreased by 16.457 m, relative humidity increased by 0.557%, and 10 m wind speed decreased by 0.011 m·s-1. The effect of aerosols on meteorological elements in the daytime is greater than that over night. The reduction of solar radiation, 2 m temperature, boundary layer height, 10 m wind speed and the increase of humidity are not conducive to the spread of pollutants. The increase of pollutants concentration also contributes to the above changes of meteorological conditions, resulting in a bidirectional feedback between meteorological conditions and atmospheric pollution.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0203304)、湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2017C04)和国家自然科学基金青年项目(41705034)共同资助
引用文本:
刘琳,白永清,林春泽,杨浩,2018.华中区域空气质量数值预报系统评估及气溶胶辐射效应的模拟研究[J].气象,44(9):1179-1190.
LIU Lin,BAI Yongqing,LIN Chunze,YANG Hao,2018.Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China and Its Application for Aerosol Radiative Effect[J].Meteor Mon,44(9):1179-1190.