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气象:2017,43(4):501-507
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2015年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定
(中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030)
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2015
(Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2016-10-28    修订日期:2017-02-27
中文摘要: 本文以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclme,TC)最佳路径集为依据,对2015年西北太平洋TC定位精度及路径、登陆点、强度预报精度进行了评定,结果表明:2015年中央气象台TC平均定位误差为14.1 km,优于2014年定位水平;中央气象台24、48、72、96和120 h路径预报误差分别为66.2、119.5、176.3、244.3和328.5 km;国内外共6个全球模式在上述预报时效的总平均路径误差分别为86.5、146.5、215.8、321.6和475.8 km;4个区域模式24、48和72 h的总平均路径误差分别为84.1、147.1和230.8 km。2015年的主观方法、全球模式和区域模式的路径预报性能均较2014年有了较大进步,但是强度预报性能仍未得到改善。目前,统计预报方法的强度预报整体性能仍然领先于数值模式。
Abstract:Operational positioning, track, landfall point and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s “Best track” dataset. The results showed that the average TC location errors of CMA is 14.1 km in 2015, better than in 2014. The average track forecast errors by CMA subjective method are 66.2 km (24 h), 119.5 km (48 h), 176.3 km (72 h), 244.3 km (96 h) and 328.5 km (120 h). Meanwhile, the global models’ average track forecast errors are 86.5 km (24 h), 146.5 km (48 h), 215.8 km (72 h), 321.6 km (96 h) and 475.8 km (120 h). Additionally, the average errors of regional models are 84.1 km (24 h), 147.1 km (48 h), and 230.8 km (72 h). In general, the ability of track forecasting by subjective methods, global models and regional models have got a major improvement compared to 2014. However, no marked improvement was found in the intensity forecasting. At present, the overall performance of statistical forecast methods is still better than numerical prediction method in the intensity forecasting.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41275067、41305049、41575108和41405060)共同资助
引用文本:
陈国民,白莉娜,万日金,2017.2015年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,43(4):501-507.
CHEN Guomin,BAI Lina,WAN Rijin,2017.Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2015[J].Meteor Mon,43(4):501-507.