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气象:2016,42(12):1506-1512
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T639台风预报误差与环境场变量的相关分析和回归分析
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Correlation and Regression Analysis of Typhoon Forecast Errors and Ambient Variables by T639
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-10-09    修订日期:2016-09-29
中文摘要: 利用国家气象中心全球谱模式T639L60(简称T639)数值预报结果和上海台风研究所整编的台风最佳路径数据,基于2009—2010年的样本,分析了西北太平洋和南海台风的环境场预报变量与路径预报误差的相关性,利用线性回归分析,建立了T639台风中心预报误差与环境风整层垂直切变、400 hPa台风环流强度的24~120 h各预报时效线性预估模型(建模样本数分别为299、232、170、117和84个),并利用2011年的样本对模型进行了检验(检验样本数分别为182、146、117、85和61个)。初步结果表明,环境风垂直切变与路径误差呈正相关,台风各层环流强度与路径误差大致呈负相关,其中400 hPa上的负相关性最明显;由环境风垂直切变与400 hPa台风环流强度建立的线性预估模型能对路径预报误差作出定性估计,其中24 h预报时效的预估模型有较好的预估效果。
Abstract:The correlation between environment forecast fields and track forecast errors of typhoons in Northwestern Pacific Ocean and South China Sea was analyzed by using the output data in 2009 and 2010 from T639, which is the global spectrum model of National Meteorological Centre, and the best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA. With regression method, a linear track error estimate model was built for the T639 typhoon track forecast errors at lead time from 24 h to 120 h with whole layer vertical shear of environment and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa (with samples of 299, 232, 170, 117 and 84, respectively). The estimate model was examined with the data in 2011 (with samples of 182, 146, 117, 85 and 61, respectively). The preliminary results illustrated that the typhoon track forecast error is positively correlated to ambient vertical wind shear, but being negative correlation with typhoon circulation intensity in each layer, which is most obvious at 400 hPa. The linear prediction model built with the whole layer vertical shear and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa is able to perform estimation to track errors qualitatively, with a preferable result for the 24 h lead time forecast.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006008)资助
引用文本:
黄奕武,高拴柱,钱奇峰,2016.T639台风预报误差与环境场变量的相关分析和回归分析[J].气象,42(12):1506-1512.
HUANG Yiwu,GAO Shuanzhu,GAO Shuanzhu,2016.Correlation and Regression Analysis of Typhoon Forecast Errors and Ambient Variables by T639[J].Meteor Mon,42(12):1506-1512.